India worries about Afghanistan ‘vacuum’ after US troops leave
DELHI AND ISLAMABAD WARY OF FALLOUT IF TALIBAN WALKS AWAY FROM PEACE TALKS
INDIA is concerned about a vacuum developing in Afghanistan following the proposed withdrawal of US and NATO forces from the country, the chief of the defence staff said last Thursday (15).
General Bipin Rawat told a security conference the worry was that “disruptors” would step into the space created by the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. He declined to name the countries that could act as spoilers.
President Joe Biden said last Wednesday (14) that US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan starting on May 1 to end America’s longest war, rejecting calls for them to stay to ensure a peaceful resolution to that nation’s internal conflict.
“Our concern is that the vacuum that will be created by the withdrawal of the United States and NATO should not create space for disruptors,” Rawat said.
India’s worry is that instability in Afghanistan could spill over into Kashmir where it has been fighting militants. It is also concerned that Pakistan will gain a bigger hand in Afghanistan because of its long-standing ties with the hardline Taliban, who are expected to play a dominant role once the US leaves.
“There are many people looking for an opportunity to walk into the space being created,” Rawat said.
Pakistan, meanwhile, on Monday (19) urged the Taliban to remain engaged in the Afghan peace process after the armed group said it would now shun summits about Afghanistan until all foreign forces leave that country.
The decision was taken after the US said last week it would withdraw all troops by September 11 this year, later than a May 1 deadline set out by the previous administration.
“They take their own decisions, but we will do whatever we can to convince them that it is in their national interest to remain engaged,” Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said of the Taliban in an interview in Abu Dhabi.
The refusal has thrown the peace process into disarray with Turkey scheduled for Saturday (24) to host a summit that diplomats had hoped could create new momentum towards a political settlement between the Taliban and Afghan government. The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 when they were ousted by US-led forces, but they still control wide areas.
Qureshi said withdrawal delays were always a possibility due to logistics, but that the Taliban had largely succeeded in their objective for foreign troops to withdraw and so should show flexibility towards the new September 11 deadline.
“The troops will be out and a date has been given and the process starts on the 1st of May and goes on until the 11th of September so there is a definite time frame,” Qureshi said.
Sources said Pakistan was putting pressure on the militants to come back to the table. Qureshi said he believed the Taliban would benefit from staying involved but said he had no contact with the group.
Pakistan, which helped facilitate USTaliban negotiations in Doha that resulted in the initial May 1 withdrawal deal, wields considerable influence with the Taliban. The insurgents have sanctuaries in Pakistan, whose main military-run intelligence service gives them support, according to US and Afghan officials. Pakistan denies the allegation.
Qureshi said he feared violence could escalate if the peace process remains deadlocked, plunging Afghanistan into civil war and leading to an exodus of Afghans. Pakistan, which hosts close to three million Afghan refugees and economic migrants, has built 90 per cent of a fence along its disputed 2,500 km (1,500 mile) border with Afghanistan and would hopefully be completed by September, he said. Qureshi also said Pakistan was ready to engage in direct dialogue with India once Jammu and Kashmir statehood was restored, which New Delhi in 2019 split into territories.
“We are two atomic powers that cannot, should not go into a direct conflict. It would be suicidal,” Qureshi said.
India invested $3 billion (£2.15bn) in Afghanistan on roads, power stations and even built its parliament following the ousting of the Taliban in 2001. Rawat said India would be happy to provide more support to Afghanistan so long as peace can return. Biden said US objectives in Afghanistan had become “increasingly unclear” over the past decade.