Menon sees opportunity in US relations
Sino-Indian ‘crisis’ “Today, India-China relations are in crisis; they are in the process of being reset. We need to come to a new equilibrium with the Chinese and restore deterrence on the line. The Chinese have to feel there will be unacceptable consequences if they try and change the situation on the border.
“Chinese behaviour has changed drastically on the border. For about 30 years, we kept the peace and both sides respected the status quo. And the line was, by and large, exactly where it was, nothing had changed. Both sides had built up infrastructure and strength, but nothing had changed. But last year, they tried physically to change the status quo at several points. So they changed the basic rules.
“We need to work out a new economic relationship as well.
“Over the years we have built up an economic relationship, which is important to both of us.
“But it’s unbalanced; there is a huge trade deficit. In 2019, it was only $54 billion (£38bn) in their favour. And it’s a large part of China’s surplus.
“So the fundamentals of the relationship are in the process of being renegotiated. This is something that is a priority for India. We need to sort this out for ourselves – where do we want to go with this relationship? And then (we) work with China, but also with all our other partners. Many others are also working with China and have similar concerns, such as maritime security in the entire Indo-Pacific, because 93 per cent of our trade goes by sea, 38 per cent of that through the South China Sea.”
n Pakistan hostility “I don’t think that this sort of managed hostility, which we have been in for the past few years, is a satisfactory state.
“I’m glad we’ve at least got the 2003 ceasefire going again. And it seems to be holding.
“But beyond the UAE’s involvement to mediate between India and Pakistan, I haven’t seen any steps.
“I don’t know why Pakistan has chosen to come into talks at this time, whether it is just opportunism to see what they can get, or whether they have certain goals that they want to achieve. But I am not privy to what happened in the talks.
“So I have an open mind. I wish them luck. I hope that they succeed.”
n Nurturing US ties “There has never been an American president who has come to office knowing more about India than president Joe Biden. If you look at the top ranks of his Cabinet, then those who deal with foreign policy – whether it is Secretary of State (Anthony) Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, CIA director Bill Burns (who was instrumental in doing the Indo-US civil nuclear deal) –all of them knew India very well.
“So this is a team who is professional, competent, and knowledgeable about India, which is rare – it’s not always that you have this combination of factors. And to have it at the very top actually creates an opportunity. We should nurture this moment and see how we can advance the relationship and transform it further. We’ve seen it transformed in the past 30 years, but let’s see what we can do now. I am very optimistic.”