Can Sunak overturn bookies’ forecasts?
EX-CHANCELLOR WINS TELEGRAPH HUSTINGS BUT TORIES ‘PREFER TRUSS’
LAST week’s hustings before 2,000 Tory party members in Cheltenham, organised by the Daily Telegraph, was important.
Rishi Sunak came across as by far the superior candidate in every way after the former chancellor and the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, had made their arguments.
I give credit to the paper for publishing the results even though it has been backing Truss.
It reported: “In charts: How Rishi Sunak pulled ahead of Liz Truss at Telegraph hustings. Analysis of 72,000 votes cast by Telegraph readers on Conservative candidates’ performances puts former chancellor in front.”
That’s quite something, given an earlier survey of its readers showed Truss was beating Rishi “60-40”.
Now it reported that Cheltenham “drew the biggest audience of the leadership contest so far, with Tory voters in the room able to ask the candidates questions live.
“Thousands more tuned in online, with 72,000 votes cast by Telegraph readers throughout the evening to indicate whether they were for or against the foreign secretary and former chancellor’s pitches.”
The paper added: “An analysis of those votes, cast in real time, puts Mr Sunak in the lead, despite Ms Truss having led in recent polls of party members.
“Where 52 per cent of votes cast for Ms Truss were supportive, Mr Sunak secured a 69 per cent positivity rating throughout the hour-long question and answer session.”
Whenever Rishi meets Tory party members, he appears to convince them he is the better candidate. So perhaps the result will be closer than the bookies’ forecast that Truss will beat Rishi by 88 per cent to 12 per cent.
Lord Ashcroft, author of Going for Broke: The Rise of Rishi Sunak, did an online poll of 10,454 adults between July 25 and August 2, and also consulted 12 focus groups. He reported: “Voters as a whole said they thought Sunak was more likely to be competent (by a 13-point margin), have the right judgment in a they also thought him more likely to win a general election for the Conservatives and be a strong leader.
“Despite thinking Sunak would make the better prime minister, voters were more likely to think Conservative party members would elect Truss (39 per cent) than Sunak (27 per cent). 2019 Conservatives thought the same, by a wider margin (45 per cent to 28 per cent).”
Why Tory party members should apparently prefer Truss, who has been rejected by Conservative MPs, is a mystery I leave to the psychiatrist Dr Raj Persaud to solve.
While Truss was called “unsure”, negative words most commonly used for Rishi included “rich”, “snake”, “out of touch”, “dishonest” and “backstabber”.