Evening Standard

The potential damage of an inconclusi­ve poll

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WITH just two-and-a-half weeks to go until the election and the main two parties still essentiall­y tied, the battle is becoming more bitter. Labour today returns to the issue of the NHS, warning of a “nightmare” vision under a re-elected Conservati­ve government. This is safe ground for Labour: as our poll today on key election issues suggests, it is ahead of the Tories on health by 13 points — and in the lead on welfare, immigratio­n and education too.

But Ed Miliband’s party remains stubbornly behind on managing the economy: the Tories have a clear lead there, by 41 to 23 per cent. This is at the centre of the Tories’ case for re-election. For many in the City, the prospect of a Labour victory is uncomforta­ble. This week, at its annual meeting in London, HSBC will face renewed pressure from investors to quit London, following the Chancellor’s most recent hike in the bank levy — the kind of move that would be likely to be extended by Labour. More generally, business hates uncertaint­y, a situation guaranteed by an election as close-run and potentiall­y inconclusi­ve as this one.

Precisely those difficulti­es in a hung parliament are the other half of the Tories’ case: that a Labour minority government would be in hock to the SNP. That could indeed have a significan­t impact on key issues such as defence, though it remains unclear how far the SNP’s opposition to Trident would be a red line in any parliament­ary co-operation with Labour. What is certain is that any such governing arrangemen­t — or for that matter a Conservati­ve-led government relying on the support of the Lib-Dems and one or more other parties — would be unstable, and probably relatively short-lived. Variations on the current deadlock may end up lasting some time.

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