A good result: now for the challenges ahead

DAVID Cameron was conciliatory in victory last night when he made his speech, hailing a far better than expected outcome for his party. He didn’t gloat but declared that he wanted to bring “our nation together, our united kingdom together” and to reclaim the mantle of “one nation, one United Kingdom”. In fact, the old Disraelian One Nation Tory idea was about bringing classes together; Mr Cameron faces a different challenge in bringing together a country divided between Scotland and the rest.

Mr Cameron’s tone was a return to his old self — less strident, more compassionate. It suits him. Yet he fought, in the event, a good campaign and the Tories have had a heady night. It was sensible to focus on the economy because it is here that the Coalition Government really did deliver, not least two million jobs. And without economic growth, there is not the means to help the vulnerable. We can only share the proceeds of growth when we have it.

This goes some way to explaining why London swung more towards Labour than elsewhere. When people feel secure in their jobs and income as we mostly do here, we feel able to focus on other things. Even here, the outcome was mixed but on the whole London bucked the trend.

It was, as Nick Clegg admitted, “a cruel and punishing night” for the Lib-Dems. They played an honourable role in government and have been duly punished for participating in the Coalition. Yet their achievements have been considerable, not least their trademark policy of taking the poorest workers out of tax altogether. A future Tory government should keep the Lib-Dem heart in policy even if they are no longer present in government.

For Labour, it has obviously been a punishing night too. But its defeat, even in Scotland, has been less sweeping when we consider not just seats won but votes cast. That is true to a lesser extent also of Ukip, which polled a significant share of the vote, around 13 per cent. That explained at least some Labour losses, including Ed Balls’. The UK electoral system provides stability but First Past the Post doesn’t do justice to those who come second.

The next government faces some formidable challenges. It must sustain economic growth and confront the real difficulties ahead when interest rates rise, as they surely will during the next 18 months, from their present rockbottom rates. The Tories in government must make good their promise of an in-out EU referendum, which Mr Cameron must prepare for by securing some substantive-seeming concessions for reform of the EU. That will be unsettling for business and for his party.

Scotland is a still more formidable challenge. Mr Cameron, a committed unionist, may have pledged himself to sustaining the United Kingdom but the reality is that Scotland is another country in political terms, with the SNP far more remote from economic reality than Labour. As Boris Johnson has suggested, there needs now to be a grown-up conversation about some kind of federal approach to the union, but Scotland already has a significant degree of autonomy, though short of the fiscal measures that the SNP would like. It is difficult to conceive of any constitutional settlement which can now consolidate the union given the sheer gulf between the political temper of Scotland and the rest of the UK though, as Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged, the stunning gains for the SNP do not equate to votes for independence or a mandate for another referendum.

This has been a good result for the country. Under Tory governance, the economy is going in the right direction and should continue to grow — the boost to the pound reflected as much. There are difficult challenges ahead, not least in achieving deficit reduction as quickly as the Tories want. But a strong economy will help compensate for swingeing public service cuts. Growth must remain the new government’s inexorable focus.