Statistics and the truth about working Britain

DON’T argue with the numbers. The Office for National Statistics has this morning given us its annual snapshot of working Britain. The figures appear to dispel some of the myths in our political debate. Britons are not, despite what you hear, enjoying a post-referendum “economic boom”. In fact, British families are worse off than they were a year ago. Take into account the higher inflation caused by the pound’s devaluation, and real earnings this year have fallen by 0.4 per cent. That’s bad news.

The good news is that, again, despite what you hear, the lowest paid are not those who are seeing the biggest squeeze. The introduction of the National Living Wage means that the earnings of the poorest 10 per cent went up by more than any other section of the population, and above the rise in the cost of living. Nor are we seeing the “hollowing out” of the middle classes that we so often read about, and which America is experiencing.

The figures today show pay distribution has become more clustered around the median — in other words, there are more, not fewer, middle-income jobs. Finally, the gap between what men and women earn remains, especially in respect of part-time work, but for full-time workers it continues to fall and is now the lowest on record. Whether these inconvenient truths from our national statistician change what the politicians today are telling us remains to be seen.

We make our own forecast: they will not.