Could gambler Ashley fancy a punt on Debenhams?

ANY attempt to second-guess billionaire Mike Ashley’s plans instantly reminds you of Winston Churchill on Russia: the portly Sports Direct billionaire is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Debenhams chief executive Sergio Bucher — if he knows — certainly isn’t letting on about Ashley’s intentions apropos his 21% stake in the department store chain, simply commenting that “he’s a very smart businessman” who “sees he can make money with us”.

People who get paid to try to work out what the hell he’s up to say there’s a certain logic in Ashley’s stake-building in Debenhams and a host of other companies. In some cases, like Debs, they give him leverage with boards getting his concessions into stores. But Ashley being Ashley, the messages are mixed: weeks after raising his stake in Debenhams in the summer he closed nearly half of his concessions, although he says he’s committed to his partnership.

So what is going on? You’d probably need a “power drinking” session with the big man for him to give you a hint, so let’s keep it simple. For all the complex and opaque ways he’s gone about building his stake since 2013, the shares have halved in that time, so he’s almost certainly under water. And Ashley, as regulars at the Ritz Casino will attest, is a big punter. Before long he’s also going to have at least £200 million burning a hole in his pocket when he sells Newcastle United to Amanda Staveley, or whoever.

For a man who reportedly lost £300 million — yes, £300 million — betting the wrong way on HBOS shares during the crash, a fullblown bid for Debenhams would be chump change. Don’t underestimate the gambler’s instinct to double down on losses. ‘SUPER’ Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank boss, deserves a medal for throwing the kitchen sink at a eurozone economy close to the abyss when he took over nearly six years ago.

But with Europe’s economy flying ahead at its fastest pace for a decade, tapering the ECB’s €60 billion (£53 billion) a month money-printing programme brings its own risks.

Leaving the taps on will be good for growth but have the Germans fretting about easy money. But move too quickly and the euro — already up more than 10% this year — will soar in value, making Draghi’s job of pushing inflation up to its near-2% target more difficult.

The ECB boss should remember the mistakes of his predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet in tightening too soon.

Softly, softly looks the best approach.

@russ_lynch