IS just about defeated, but the Islamist threat remains

AL QAEDA was born in the final year of the Islamist Mujahideen’s fight to expel the Russians from Afghanistan in 1989. The young Saudi millionaire Osama bin Laden had brought his fighters — and his cash — to the battles around Jalalabad, setting up a logistic base in the mountain caves of Tora Bora.

In its 30-year history, al Qaeda, meaning “the base”, has evolved and moved across many countries. It has become a global brand, but on the ground it has changed name and shape.

Currently its descendants the Nusra Front and Tahrir al Sham are active in the Idlib enclave in north-west Syria, and in the Arabian peninsula.

It is now thought to be strong in the Afghan-Pakistan borderlands, where Bin Laden’s son Hamza is believed to be operating. It is also strong in southeast Asia, especially Indonesia.

The militant group has had only two acknowledged leaders: Bin Laden, who was killed by US Navy Seals in hiding in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in May 2011, and his co-founder, the Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is still in charge and believed to be in Pakistan.

After the September 11 atrocity in 2001, the ensuing US-led operation in Afghanistan led to Bin Laden’s expulsion from Kabul, where he had been based since 1996. Since 2001, it has operated as a brand or symbol through affiliates and franchises. The subgroups were involved in the bombing of the Atocha station in Madrid in 2004, and on July 7, 2005 four bombers who claimed to be followers of al Qaeda attacked the London underground and a bus, killing 52 people.

In recent times, al Qaeda has been eclipsed by Islamic State in its reputation for cruelty and fanatical terror. But with IS all but defeated in Iraq and Syria, the al Qaeda brand, under some 50 different names, remains active across central Asia, north and sub-Saharan Africa and south-east Asia.

The movement has at least 30,000 activist adherents, in word and deed, according to intelligence estimates.

Al Qaeda has become a global brand, but on the ground has changed name and shape