Beyond Brexit there are big choices for new PM
THIS week will bring a new prime minister, a new chancellor and possibly a new foreign secretary, too. Three big choices face them – three things, that is, apart from Brexit.
The first is the Iran crisis. It’s a tricky moment for Britain to be in need of friends. Enthusiasts for the Royal Navy are talking excitedly about the need for more frigates and destroyers to protect British-flagged tankers from Iranian attack, as if Admiral Nelson still ruled the waves. The new PM will surely want to make a bold announcement about sending extra ships. But the choice he will actually face is less glorious — where are our allies? Iran siezed a British-flagged tanker in response to our action as part of an alliance: upholding the international order by stopping an Iranian ship in Gibraltar suspected of heading for Syria, in breach of sanctions. Who will the new PM ask to help us in return? Until recently that question would have been easy to answer: the western alliance led by the United States but supported by many members of the EU, who have just as much interest as we do in keeping oil supplies from the Gulf flowing freely. But now we have alienated the EU while the US has Iran in its sights. We’re looking lonely.
Second, within days the new PM will also have to make a decision on HS2. It’s no coincidence that news emerged of a possible £30 billion increase in its cost days before his arrival. The scheme’s opponents want to kill it. Those who know we need it want to reboot with a clear assessement of what it will cost and how long it will take to build. The new PM could be tempted to grab a headline by scrapping it. More likely, he’ll try to shunt the decision off for a bit into a review. Both of those would be mistakes. Both candidates in the Tory leadership race have talked of the importance of investment in infrastructure. Now they need to show they mean it — and decide to press on.
Third, what about the money? Soon we will have a new chancellor eager to make a mark with a big spending review reassessing Government priorities over the next few years. But this would be a crazy time to do it. Both candidates in the Tory leadership race have made unaffordable promises on tax cuts and spending. No one knows what state the economy is in now, or what will happen to it in the next six months.
The new PM should decide to pause the spending review and extend current plans for an extra year. By the end of the week, we’ll find out who has got the top jobs. We’ll know, too, if they have the courage to decide.