Johnson is a hero to his party but will he be a zero in the country? It all rides on the drama of October 31

12, depending on which part of the Fixed Term Parliament Act triggers it.

Polling guru Sir John Curtice said on the Andrew Marr Show yesterday that he thinks there’s a 50-50 chance of a Tory majority in that scenario. If he won that election, gone would be many of his current “turbulent priests”. The parliamentary party would be transformed. The Boris sceptics would have been roundly defeated and the new government would be formed in his own image. The Prime Minister wouldn’t have Margaret Thatcher’s huge majority of 1983, but nonetheless, he would be master of all he surveys. And he would have a mandate to lead the country out of the EU at the end of January in whatever way he damn well wishes.

If he doesn’t win a majority, there are three other scenarios — a Labour majority, a Labour-led minority or coalition, or a Tory minority government. In the latter scenario, we’d be back to where we a re n ow. No t h i n g wo u l d h ave changed. The purgatorywould continue.

If the Brexit Party didn’t exist, the Tories would undoubtedly march to victory. But it does. And Nigel Farage has a very big decision to make soon. He has the future of the country, the future of Brexit and Boris’s future in the palm of his hand. Boris may have discovered the Conservative Party’s G-spot, now he needs to locate the electorate’s.

Conservative MPs can be ruthless with losers and prime ministers who fail to keep their promises