As a new axis of power forms, the UK needs to decide where it stands
THERE was good news this week from the laboratories of Oxford with reports about the possible success of a vaccine that might at last start to bring the world back to normal. It seemed propitious timing, coming days after the Government launched a campaign to prepare the country for life after Brexit: “UK’s new start — let’s get going” runs the slogan.
We got a glimpse of what the brave new world looks like this week too — one that is best considered with a stiff drink in hand. First, the National Cyber Security Centre announced that hackers “almost certainly” working from the Kremlin have been targeting bodies working on Covid vaccines. Then the Government announced “it was almost certain that Russian actors sought to intervene in the 2019 general election”.
And then there is China, smarting at the announcement that Huawei will be “completely removed” from the UK’s 5G network by the end of 2027. China’s ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said the decision severely undermines trust. Others were more robust. The Global Times, a mouthpiece for the ruling Communist Party, said it was “necessary for China to retaliate” for fear of being seen to be bullied.
In fact, the Government’s decision was carefully worded, precisely to avert raising geopolitical temperatures that were already warm before Covid struck and have heated significantly since. Huawei is to be removed, said the official statement, because of actions taken by the US. The removal of Huawei was not because of security concerns but because of the assessment of the difficulties the company will face due to sanctions from Washington, specifically with regards to accessing US semiconductor technology. This nuance was not lost on Ambassador Liu. Britain would be seen in China and “the rest of the world”, he warned, as nothing more than a “junior partner” to the US.
Huawei is the tip of a much bigger iceberg when it comes to China — and for that matter with Britain’s role in the wider world. The UK is facing what analysts have long been calling a “whole of system challenge” from states that are configured, behave and react differently to liberal democracies. One of the themes of 2020 is talk of collapsing supply chains, the end of globalisations and the emergence of a new Cold War not only between China and the US but between systems of government, thought and global visions around the world.
As a member of the UN Security Council and G7 and a nuclear power, the UK needs to respond appropriately to navigate the dangers and to take advantage of the opportunities that can also lie ahead. The importance therefore of the Integrated Review that was announced by the Government in February and aims to treat security, defence, foreign policy and international development together cannot be overstated. Nor can the need to invest in education at school and university level.
The UK needs to re-engage too with a return to multilateralism at a time when the Trump era has damaged not only the perceptions of the West as a stabilising force but the realities too. And what is more, it has left space for others to exploit. It is no coincidence that Chinese now head four of the 15 UN specialised agencies, nor that China has developed a well-honed narrative around “win-win” relations with other states, notably expressed in its Belt and Road Initiative which talks of co-operation, joint projects and mutual benefits — even if the realities are sometimes more complicated. The UK needs to build stronger and better partnerships and alliances with states in all corners of the world and work with those who have overlapping interests with our own — something that requires legwork, investment and also the ability to deliver on promises.
So these are testing times, made more complicated by the pandemic, by the economic storm clouds gathering, by Brexit and by a global situation that Save the Children estimate saw 1.6 billion children out of school around the world in April — “the first time in human history an entire generation has their education disrupted”. But the UK does not just need to “get going”; it also needs to work out where it wants to go. That requires some careful — and urgent — thought.
Huawei is the tip of a much bigger iceberg when it comes to China — and Britain’s role in the wider world