‘One million Londoners have had coronavirus’

MORE than a million Londoners have had coronavirus, a major study estimated today.

The results, based on antibody tests taken at home by 100,000 people across the country, said almost 3.4 million people in England have had Covid-19.

The figures, from Imperial College London, are 10 times higher than official numbers of confirmed cases.

Further evidence emerged today of the knock-on impact of the virus on the nation’s health. The number of people on NHS waiting lists in England hit four million, including more than 50,000 who have been waiting more than a year.

In addition, more than 40,000 fewer people than normal were referred by their GP for hospital checks for suspected cancer.

NHS England figures today showed that 3.9 million patients were waiting to start treatment at the end of June. However, because a number of hospitals failed to submit figures, the true number “may have been four million patients”.

A total of 153,134 people were referred by their GP for cancer

checks in June, but this was 40,913 fewer than in June last year.

In a separate development, Newham was set to be announced as a trial borough for the latest version of the NHS app that ministers hope will help curtail the spread of coronavirus. The app has yet to go live after a trial in the Isle of Wight highlighted flaws in its design.

Today’s Imperial study, the world’s largest home-testing programme for antibodies, said that 13 per cent of Londoners had been infected with the virus by the middle of last month.

The capital’s population is 8.9 million — meaning more than 1.1 million people have had coronavirus.

This could be good news if scientists are able to confirm that the antibodies they developed are able to offer “natural immunity” against reinfection. But it is not yet known how long antibodies remain in the body or what degree of long-term protection they can offer.

London’s antibody rate was almost double the next highest region, the North West, where it was 6.6 per cent.

The South-East outside the capital was 3.9 per cent and the South West 2.8 per cent. Across England as a whole, the rate was six per cent.

The Government’s daily dashboard says 313,798 people in England have tested positive for coronavirus to date.

Its numbers are based on nasal and throat swabs that detect the “live” virus, mainly in people who have symptoms, rather than on antibody detection.

A separate study last month from the UK Biobank, based on 20,000 antibody tests, estimated the infection rate in London to be 10.8 per cent. Both the Imperial and Biobank studies have found black and minority ethnic Londoners had higher rates of infection.

Country-wide, infection rates were highest in black people (17.3 per cent) and in Asian people (11.3 per cent) and in care home workers (16.5 per cent), Imperial said. Antibodies were detected in five per cent of white people.

The higher prevalence amongst BAME communities is thought to link to larger households, more deprived areas and the higher likelihood of having a public-facing job.

The Imperial study asked volunteers to test themselves at home between June 20 and July 13 and to upload the results. Antibody home-testing kits have yet to be approved for official use by the Government but the researchers found that several tests were accurate enough to give useful results in such a big sample of participants.

Almost everyone — 96 per cent — confirmed to have Covid-19 was found to have antibodies. However, the presence of antibodies was most common in younger people and declined in those over 65. Thirty two per cent of people found to have antibodies said they had not experienced coronavirus symptoms.

Health minister Edward Argar said: “We don’t yet know that antibodies provide immunity to coronavirus, but the more information we can gather on this virus, and the easier we can make it for people to participate in these studies, the better equipped we will be to respond.”

IN THE midst of one crisis, another is looming. NHS England figures reveal that at the start of June there were 3.9 million on NHS waiting lists. Meanwhile GP referrals for cancer checks are down by some 40,000 on last year.

The problem hardly needs to be spelt out: cancer survival rates depend on the speed of treatment. And as winter approaches, there’s a risk that with a vast backlog an already stretched NHS nears capacity. Unprecedented healthcare rationing could be the result.

What’s the answer? Those staying away from doctors for fear of catching the virus, or perhaps of wasting NHS time, should be reassured and encouraged to make an appointment. Particularly if they fear they have cancer.

As for the backlog, we can all do our part by helping stop the spread of the virus. But the Government must also confront the fact that the NHS has deep flaws, and is illequipped to deal with the ageing population. Elderly people often occupy beds when they would do better at home with extra help. A better social care system has long been the solution.