The budget exposes Labour’s existential dilemma: it can’t decide its view on the economy

TODAY will be a tale of two politicians. And I’m not talking about Nicola Sturgeon. Compared with the drama which will unfold in Holyrood, Budget day in Westminster will probably be a bit limp, especially when so much of it has been trailed.

Rishi Sunak will be looking forward to his big moment at the dispatch box — with a cheeky Mexican Coke and bags of sizzling new Insta stories (swipe up for furlough) — while for Sir Keir Starmer, it will be one of his toughest days yet as Leader of the Opposition.

Labour has been struggling. Unable to get much cut through and when it does, there has been confusion and hesitancy such as getting in a tangle over whether or not to support corporation tax increases. Many think being in opposition should be a breeze when the UK has one of the highest death tolls in Europe and one of the worst economic declines of any major economies, but it is not.

The hugely successful vaccine roll-out has been a shot in the arm for the Prime Minister and the Chancellor is ragingly popular because he has given lots of people lots of money. As a friend said, “They’ve paid me to stay at home, watch telly and play with my kitten. What’s not to love?” From what we know, more cash will be splashed until September and there will no doubt be a rabbit out the hat. Labour can hardly oppose vital spending because they would be doing the same. They have to bide their time. Just because the unstoppable PR factory that is brand Sunak says everything is hunky dory, doesn’t mean it will be.

Many economists fear that by the end of the year, unemployment will be a huge concern. There is also an anxiety that despite the vaccine, the virus may not just politely ebb away by the autumn. And there will be a return to traditional conservative fiscal tradition when it comes to public services and core tax and spend choices, although it won’t be called austerity.

But the big question Labour has to face up to is whether the books need to be balanced any time soon and whether more should be borrowed to stimulate the economy. That’s the question which has haunted the party since the financial crash.

The problem is that Labour leadership just doesn’t know what the public think. Labour hopes the pandemic has made people less financially conservative and open to a new economic settlement, but they lack the courage to lead the discussion. Particularly as Labour is still seen as weak on the economy and their internal polling tells them not to attack the Government too hard on the pandemic. They don’t want to make a fatal electoral mistake too early, but being too cautious risks them sliding into irrelevance.

There’s no way of softening the blow for Starmer today. He will watch Sunak deliver a Budget to roars of approval. And then when Starmer gets to his feet, all the political editors will walk out the press gallery to get a briefing from the Treasury team. But Sunak’s success should not be judged on headlines, but what shape the economy and jobs are in as we head into the winter.

It will be a blow for Starmer today as Rishi delivers the budget to roars of approval

NICOLA STURGEON is one of the most impressive politicians of our generation. Today she fights for her political life at the inquiry into how allegations against Alex Salmond of sexual harassment were handled by her government. The drama is being weaponised by both sides. ‘What about Boris Johnson?’ scream independence supporters. ‘This proves Scotland can’t rule itself,’ yell unionists. Surely all political leaders should uphold high standards? And it shows that having no credible opposition is deeply unhealthy.