Public doesn’t want a new Tory leader, it wants change
THE Ipsos poll reflects another month of all the wrong records being broken from Rishi Sunak’s perspective. The Conservative vote share stands at 19 per cent, the lowest recorded by Ipsos since 1978. Net satisfaction with Sunak himself stands at -59, the joint worst for a prime minister in that time and similar to Jeremy Corbyn’s low of -60 in the autumn of 2019. Meanwhile, Reform UK appear to be on the up, registering a record high of 13 per cent this month.
None of this reflects a Tory party on the comeback trail. If anything, the polls have moved against it since the start of the year. So what is the answer for the Conservatives?
There isn’t an easy one. Our data shows there is little public appetite for a change in Tory leader. Just 37 per cent of the public want another leadership change before an election. This in contrast to the 55 per cent who said the Conservatives should change leader under Boris Johnson in May 2022. None of the potential candidates who might replace Sunak poll much better in head-to-heads versus Keir Starmer. All of which points to a public that is making up its mind and wants the opportunity to vote to change the Government. Earlier this year, seven in 10 told Ipsos it was time for change at the next election. There is more support for an election this summer than for another leadership shuffle in the Tories.
Yet public confidence in Labour remains elusive too. Starmer’s net satisfaction ratings are more Hague or Miliband than Cameron or Blair. The public remain split on whether the party is ready for government. We should expect to see Sunak try to use this as part of their answer, although it will be more effective if they can also turn around pessimism over the economy, immigration and public services first.
However, it is the Government’s unpopularity that is more significant. There might be doubts about Labour but there appear to be few about the Conservatives — voters want a change. Sunak’s job is to change their mind before polling day. But time is running out for him.
Keiran Pedley is director of politics for Ipsos