Hall shaves six points off Khan’s poll lead amid dramatic shifts in voting intentions

SUSAN Hall is closing the gap on Sadiq Khan as the mayoral race hots up with dramatic shifts in voting intentions in inner and outer London, a survey reveals today.

The exclusive YouGov poll puts the Tory contender on 27 per cent, up three points from February, and her Labour rival on 46 per cent, down three points.

While Mr Khan still leads by 19 points this is down from a 25-point gap in February. Green Party candidate Zoe Garbett is on nine per cent, Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie on eight and Reform UK’s Howard Cox is on six.

Election experts expected the polls to narrow at around this time as Londoners focus more on the contest after receiving leaflets from candidates, the campaigns revving up and the May 2 polling day approaching.

The survey showed Ms Hall knocking six points off Mr Khan’s lead despite the gap in Westminster voting intentions between Labour and the Tories in London widening. But far more striking is the comparison between inner and outer London. Ms Hall has significantly recovered ground on Mr Khan in outer London,

With only two weeks left, we would need much more dramatic shifts than these to put the result in question

where the Ultra Low Emission Zone expansion is far more controversial. In February, the Labour contender was ahead by 46 per cent to 27 per cent, or 19 points. But now the Tory challenger is just five points behind, on 33 per cent compared with Mr Khan’s 38 per cent.

However, he has boosted his lead in inner London, from 54 per cent to 19 per cent in February, to 64 per cent to 14 per cent, a gap of 50 points compared with 35 two months ago.

Inner London is traditionally strong Labour territory, while in the past the “donut” ring of outer London has more favoured the Tories.

Anthony Wells, head of political research at YouGov, said: “Mayoral voting intentions are similar to people’s Westminster voting intention. But polls are starting to diverge as people start thinking about the actual race at hand.”

However, he added: “Even after that narrowing, Mr Khan still has a commanding lead. With only two weeks left, we would need much more dramatic shifts than these to put the result in question.”

The Conservatives are on just 16 per cent in London in Westminster voting intentions, down one point from February, and Labour is up three points to 55 per cent. Reform UK and the Green Party are both on nine per cent, and Lib-Dems eight per cent. The shift in mayoral voting intentions also appears more driven by views on Mr Khan, and possibly Ulez, than by Ms Hall who seems yet to have made an impact on many Londoners. Eighteen per cent have a favourable view of her, 28 per cent unfavourable, and 53 per cent say “don’t know”.

For Mr Khan, 49 per cent regard him unfavourably, 39 per cent favourably, with 13 per cent “don’t knows”. Fifty-two per cent say Mr Khan is doing badly as Mayor and 36 per cent well. Fifty-two per cent in outer London back cancelling the Ulez expansion, a key policy of Ms Hall but 46 per cent in inner London oppose that. When those polled were asked to select up to three issues most important in deciding how they would vote, 59 per cent said the cost of living, 41 per cent crime and policing, 34 per cent housing, 29 per cent health, 26 per cent transport, 22 per cent London’s economy, 19 per cent environment and

air quality, 18 per cent council tax and 10 per cent education.

A quarter of Londoners believe Mr Khan is strong, 30 per cent weak, 34 per cent “neither” and 11 per cent “don’t know”. For Ms Hall, 10 per cent say strong, 18 per cent weak, 14 per cent “neither” and 58 per cent “don’t know”. A third of Londoners believe if Mr Khan wins the election it would have a negative impact on their quality of life, 19 per cent a positive one, 37 per cent would make no real difference, and 10 per cent “don’t know”. For Ms Hall, 26 per cent say negative impact, 14 per cent positive, 21 per cent no real difference, and 39 per cent “don’t know”.

• YouGov interviewed 1,157 adults online in London between April 9 and 17. Data are weighted.

THE gap is narrowing. An exclusive YouGov poll in the Standard puts Tory candidate Susan Hall on 27 per cent, up three points from February, while Mayor Sadiq Khan drops three points to 46 per cent. Neck-and-neck it isn’t, but a 19-point lead is less comfortable than 25 points, particularly if the tightening continues as analysts expect.

As ever, there is a striking difference between outer and inner London. Hall is just five points behind Khan in the so-called “doughnut”, suggesting the Tory candidate’s anti-Ulez extension platform is cutting through. Conversely, the Mayor has further broadened his lead in the capital’s inner boroughs to a remarkable 50 points.

That Khan’s overall polling lead is shrinking even as the Labour Party’s nationally is widening may be instructive. It suggests voters are not simply going to grant him a third term without at least examining his record over the past eight years — and his promises for the next four.

In the weeks and months prior to the 2021 election, Khan regularly polled 20 points ahead of Tory rival Shaun Bailey. On election day, the Mayor’s first preferences lead shrank to five points. Past performances are no indication of future results, but they do provide a warning against complacency.