Evening Telegraph (First Edition)
Scotland ‘split down the middle’ on SNP’s plans for IndyRef2
A NEW poll has found Scottish voters are completely split on whether or not an independence referendum should be held next year.
The Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times suggests the country is locked in a constitutional stalemate, with 44% of voters opposing Nicola Sturgeon’s calls for indyref2 to take place on October 19 2023. However, it found 43% were in favour of the proposed referendum date.
The poll also found support for independence is slightly ahead on 48%, compared to 47% being in favour of the union.
The first minister called the results of the poll “very encouraging”.
Pollster Mark Diffley said because it is so tight, a marginal swing on either side of the debate will decide the outcome of any independence vote.
Speaking to The Sunday Show, Mr Diffley said: “Everything will come down to the campaign.”
He added: “In my world, the world of statistics, what we have got is a statistical dead heat.
“We’ve got two sides running 50/50 on this, the country absolutely in deadlock and split down the middle.”
Following Ms Sturgeon’s announcement of plans to hold IndyRef2 next October, Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain QC has gone to the Supreme Court to find out whether or not the Scottish Government has the legal powers to do so.
The Panelbase poll found 48% of voters believe the Supreme Court will rule against the Scottish Government on this, with a further 76% of voters believing Boris Johnson will block a referendum.
The SNP says it will fight the next general election as a de facto referendum on independence if this happens.
Ms Sturgeon has said the poll results show the SNP is “within touching distance” of getting a majority in the general election if it does become a de facto referendum.
Her deputy, Keith Brown, added: “The momentum is with the Yes campaign and support for independence is only likely to grow further... when the alternative is a broken, failing, corrupt Westminster system.”
The SNP has also launched a drive to get as many people as possible registered to vote for the proposed referendum.
Other parties in Scotland, however, are split on whether or not the next general election should be a de facto referendum on independence.
Co-leader of the Scottish Greens Patrick Harvie said his party would fight that election on the single issue of independence should the calls for a referendum be blocked.
Sarah Boyack, Scottish Labour’s constitution spokeswoman, said Mr Harvie’s interview shows the Greens are “more than happy to drop their environmental priorities” to focus on independence.
Alex Salmond, from the Alba Party, said there is little chance of the UK Supreme Court “protecting Scottish sovereignty”, adding he is “certain” Mr Johnson will also refuse a referendum.