Will pleas from Israel’s allies be listened to?

ICANNOT recall a moment in my adult lifetime when the world has felt so close to the brink. As I write, we wait with bated breath for Israel’s promised response to the first attack by its arch enemy Iran on Israeli soil.

Will the latest escalation in the tit for tat between the two countries lead to a wider regional war, or even a global conflict, or will Israel listen to the pleas from its allies, most importantly the United States, for restraint and to start de-escalating the growing tensions?

The recent evidence of Israel heeding American and other Western warnings has not been encouraging. President Biden and other Western leaders have been frustrated by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s failure to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza, deliver on his promises to increase the flow of humanitarian aid and escalating attacks on Palestinian civilians by extremist Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu relies on a governing coalition that includes far-right nationalist politicians who would welcome a showdown with Iran, which they believe is just a matter of time anyway, and he faces an Israeli public still raw from the Hamas attacks of October 7 and impatient for the return of the remaining hostages and the defeat of Hamas in Gaza.

There must be some hope, however, that this time Israel will listen to its allies. Israel largely thwarted Iran’s bombardment, thanks to US, British and other Western support. That gives President Biden and other Western leaders leverage when they tell Netanyahu they will not join him in a war against Iran, call on him to de-escalate the tensions with Iran and refocus on resolving the hostage and humanitarian crises in Gaza.

A wider regional war is in neither Israel’s nor Iran’s interests and we must hope cool heads prevail. But there is always the danger that the hotheads take control or a mistake leads to a spiral of escalation that cannot be stopped.

A full scale Middle East war would be terrible for the global economy, coming after the economic shocks of the Covid pandemic and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. There is no guarantee it would be contained in the Middle East, with Russia so closely aligned to Iran and the US and the West to Israel.

It will take the best efforts of global leaders and international institutions to pull Israel and Iran back from the brink.

The US, Britain and others may need to use the leverage they have, in financial support and arms sales with Israel, which they have been reluctant to up to now. They face a heavy responsibility to prevent the Middle East and wider world falling into the abyss.