The only driver who can take the fight to Mercedes isn’t getting any closer to the title he craves

Red Bull promoted young hotshot Max Verstappen to the upper echelons of Formula 1 with the express target of making him the category’s youngest ever world champion, but as the Dutch phenomenon gets ready to turn 23, and Red Bull once again falls short in its quest to produce a car capable of challenging Mercedes, time is short to complete the mission

Horner described Red Bull being “in a position to challenge Mercedes”; Verstappen said: “We really want to mount a challenge to Mercedes and I think we can do that.” Now, in a championship and world turned upside down by coronavirus, Red Bull’s prospects look very different. There had been eight grands prix this year at the time of writing, after the Italian Grand Prix. Mercedes had won six of them, Lewis Hamilton five. Leaving aside Monza – madcap and influenced by Safety Car and red flag and won by Pierre Gasly for Red Bull’s junior team – Verstappen had been the only driver to pose even the vaguest sort of challenge to Mercedes. And he had won a race. It was done, as Horner points out, “on merit”.

But the Dutchman’s sole victory was also the result of Mercedes being exposed by F1’s choice to mix things up at the second Silverstone race with softer tyres, and a day that turned out to be unexpectedly hot. So far, so hybrid-era Formula 1: Mercedes out in front; Red Bull pushing, snapping at the heels, snatching the odd win, but ultimately falling short.

But there’s another dimension to this story of unfulfilled ambition. Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko has set the company the target of making Verstappen the youngest champion in Formula 1’s history, describing it on the eve of this season as “our big goal for Max”.

That record was set by another driver in a Red Bull. Sebastian Vettel was 23 years and 134 days old when he won the first of his titles with the team, in 2010. Verstappen was born on 30 September, 1997, so if he is going to break it, Red Bull will have to somehow dominate the final part of this season.

Even in normal circumstances, that would seem unlikely. As it is, it looks all but impossible.

The coronavirus crisis has led to a series of rule changes, and there are severe restrictions on the alterations that can be made to cars and engines through this season and next.

There is still some potential for development, but Mercedes has a head start of such magnitude that it will, on past evidence, take some overhauling.

So where does that leave Red Bull and its ambitions?

And what does its failure to live up to its own expectations say about not only the team, but the future of its biggest asset – Verstappen?

WHAT’S GONE WRONG?

The warning signs about this year’s Red Bull were there in pre-season testing. Verstappen and team-mate Alex Albon kept spinning, and they kept doing it in the same way, mid-corner.

At the time, the team and drivers played it down, saying it was normal, a function of exploring the limits of the new car. But observers questioned whether the spins were evidence of a fundamental instability issue with the car, and once the season started, it was apparent that’s exactly what it had.

“The car’s not behaving as predicted at the moment,” Horner admitted at the Spanish Grand Prix. “It is quite variable. We have been changing a lot of stuff on the car as we have been searching to sort out its issues.”

Red Bull had planned three major upgrade phases for the start of the year – for Melbourne, Spain and Austria.

All were combined for the delayed start of the season at the Red Bull Ring, and something did not quite go to plan.

“Going from a race one update to a mid-season update without those intermediary steps you would receive track data from,” says Horner, “perhaps the circuit hasn’t replicated what we expected to see from our tools, because you’d have had that track data along the way to verify between each incremental step. But that’s just needed a little bit of unpicking and I think we’ve understood that and everything we’ve introduced has remained on the car.”

At the same time, as Horner says, “Mercedes made a big step over the winter, particularly on the power unit. It has been very impressive and they have done a good job with their car as well. They haven’t won the previous six world championships by mistake and they’ve had continuity and they are a very big machine.”

In fact, Mercedes ascribes about two-thirds of its own progress to the chassis, and only one-third to the engine. And the combination of these factors has been frightening for anyone who is not a Mercedes employee or fan.

On average, the Mercedes is 0.875s quicker than the Red Bull in qualifying (excluding the wet Styria qualifying) - up from 0.387s over 2019. Monza apart, the Red Bull has been comfortably quicker than anything else (in Verstappen’s hands at least), but in the context of the Mercedes it is, as Max described it after qualifying in Italy, “just not a very fast car”.

“We know that Mercedes are the target,” Horner says. “They’re doing a very, very good job at the moment. They are setting the benchmark very high and we have to take on that challenge. Everybody in the team and Honda is extremely motivated to do that and obviously Max in particular as well. “It isn’t going to be easy; F1 isn’t easy. But I believe in the people we have, in the capacity and capability we have, and I think that we will eventually be

SIX MONTHS AGO – IN WHAT NOW SEEMS LIKE A DIFFERENT WORLD, ALMOST A DIFFERENT LIFE – MAX VERSTAPPEN AND CHRISTIAN HORNER SAT IN RED BULL’S TRENDY UK HEADQUARTERS IN LONDON’S COVENT GARDEN AND TALKED UP THEIR CHANCES FOR THE NEW SEASON.

able to mount a challenge and really take the fight to them. They’ve turned up with a very good car this year and we have a big regulation change for 2022, but I think before that there is plenty of opportunity.”

All of this underlines the quality of Verstappen’s driving this year. Not only is he the only driver to beat the Mercedes in a straight fight on a Sunday, he is also the only one to get among them on a Saturday, when he used the wet qualifying at the second Austrian race to slip between Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas. And until Verstappen’s retirement in Italy, he was also between them in the championship. This was also on merit, as both he and Bottas had one zero score each up to that point: Verstappen an engine-related retirement in Austria; Bottas a puncture that dropped him out of the points at Silverstone.

Horner is unequivocal in his praise of Verstappen: “It’s a phenomenal performance. He’s driven brilliantly this year. He’s very rounded. He has all the speed and car control and flair and tenaciousness that he’s always had but he has coupled that with experience. That makes him hugely competitive.”

Despite that, it has been notable how relaxed Verstappen is, given Red Bull’s competitive situation. There has as yet been no sense of annoyance or frustration.

“I’m not frustrated,” he insisted in Belgium. “I’ve accepted the situation I’m in. A lot of people would like to be in my car.

We are still fighting for podiums. It is a great position to be in. We keep trying to make it better, but Mercedes just did an incredible job and you have to accept that. It doesn’t mean I don’t want to beat them. Every chance I get, I will go for it.

“On pure pace, both should be ahead of me in the championship. Overall, to be second in a few races where Mercedes had more pace, we overachieved a bit and besides that we always maximised what we could.

Very happy with that, but as a team we are not here to be second or third. We want to fight for the championship, but you also have to accept the situation we are in that we are not really able to challenge. Yes, it looks like it on paper, but if you look at the pure pace, we are too slow and relying a bit on an off day for Mercedes or a bit of luck. So there is still a lot of work to do.”

Horner says he is not surprised about the equanimity with which Verstappen has dealt with the reality of this season.

“He hasn’t let anything get to him,” Horner says.

“Max is driving with an attitude of, ‘I’m certainly not the favourite - I didn’t expect to be the favourite coming in.’ And he’s treating every race like a cup final, and he’s been tremendously mature in the way he’s dealt with that.

“In the last couple of years, since Daniel [Ricciardo] left the team and he became the team leader, he’s really stepped up to that, and he’s taken that responsibility quite seriously.

He’s done a really super job in that respect.”

WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT RED BULL?

Red Bull’s repeated failure to get into a position to challenge Mercedes over a season inevitably leads to questions about what’s missing in the team. Mercedes’ dominant start to this year, combined with Red

Bull’s struggles, and the startling leap forward made by Racing Point with its 2019 Mercedes copy has led some to wonder whether Red Bull’s design philosophy is wrong.

Mercedes and Red Bull pursue very different approaches to aerodynamic design. Red Bull uses what is known as

“high rake”; Mercedes “low rake”. This refers to the angle between the front and rear of the car – greater on the Red Bull, the rear floor of which is further off the ground than Mercedes’.

These are two different methods of trying to achieve the same thing. To generate downforce, teams want to create a low-pressure area under the car by speeding up the airflow.

High rake does this by increasing the mass flow of air; low rake by reducing the area that air is forced through - to take a hosepipe as an example, the difference between opening the tap or squeezing the end.

Red Bull design chief Adrian Newey has pursued high rake for decades. The idea is that the increased distance between the diffuser and the track pulls lots of air through the floor. What’s interesting about this in the context of this year is that Red Bull has changed philosophy at the front of the car, which sets up the airflow to the rear.

For years, Red Bull had used what are known as J-vanes - vertical slats under the nose - to control the airflow off the front wing. But this year it has adopted what is known as a ‘cape’, a shaped horizontal piece of bodywork under the nose, a device pioneered by Mercedes.

For whatever reason, Red Bull started this year with a car marginally slower than it had in 2019. It took six races - the Spanish Grand Prix - before the 2020 Red Bull set a faster time in qualifying than its predecessor. On average over the year so far, the Red Bull is only 0.309s quicker than last year at the same circuits. The Mercedes, by contrast, is 0.761s faster.

Horner, though, rejects the idea that Red Bull is on the wrong train. He admits that the change in frontal aero philosophy has “given some anomalies

“AS A TEAM WE ARE NOT HERE TO BE SECOND OR THIRD. WE WANT TO FIGHT FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP, BUT YOU ALSO HAVE TO ACCEPT THE SITUATION WE ARE IN THAT WE ARE NOT REALLY ABLE TO CHALLENGE

“I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE THINK I WOULDN’T BE MOTIVATED. I HAVE ONE OF THE BEST JOBS IN THE WORLD, I AM DRIVING THIRD OR SECOND. WHY WOULDN’T I BE MOTIVATED?

that we need to understand”. But says he “disagrees” with the idea that high rake is dead – and points out Mercedes has also been raising its rear ride-height in recent seasons (which is true, but doesn’t alter the fact that there is still a distinct difference between the two cars). “These cars are incredibly complex aerodynamically,” Horner adds. “You’ve only got to look at the components that make up a barge board, a front wing, the underside of a front wing. And sometimes you can get things that don’t work in perfect harmony or in different conditions. “We have a decent understanding of what hasn’t been behaving on the car and have some hopefully good, positive steps in the pipeline. The car has not been happy in some conditions and I think the guys are now understanding what’s causing that unhappiness and they are working hard to address it.”

WHAT’S NEXT?

Cyril Abiteboul, boss of Red Bull’s previous engine partner Renault, believes Red Bull has “missed a trick” in modern Formula 1 and is too “distinct” from its engine partner.

“You really need to be one group of people, one team,” Abiteboul says, “with one mindset and we have failed to do that altogether. It looks like they are not able to do much better with Honda and it just shows the level of complexity and perfection that is required in Formula 1 in order to win, and in particular to beat Mercedes.”

Horner rejects that, saying: “The difference with Honda is that rather than paying for engines, it’s a true partnership. Their facilities in the UK are geographically closer to us in Milton Keynes than [Renault’s engine base at] Viry Châtillon is to [its chassis base in] Enstone, so I would have to – not for the first time – disagree with Cyril, [and say] that his observations are a little wide of the mark.

“Between Honda, in the UK and Japan, it is fully integrated in the manner you would expect an engine department and a chassis group to work. Of course, there were communication issues sometimes in the early days but that’s just got better and better.

“It’s going to take time. There are no chinks in

Mercedes’ armour under the current set-up. Nothing lasts forever and we just have to keep plugging away and keep pushing and do everything we can to keep them under pressure and keep improving ourselves.

“The relationship with Honda has only grown stronger and better these past 12 months and hopefully that puts us in good shape for the future as well.”

Over the winter between the 2019 and 2020 seasons,

Verstappen signed a new contract with Red Bull to the end of 2023.

It was a move instigated by the driver himself, and demonstrated a bold vote of confidence in the team and Honda.

For now, Verstappen is relaxed about the position. “I don’t understand why people think

I wouldn’t be motivated,” he says. “I have one of the best jobs in the world, I am driving third or second. Why wouldn’t I be motivated? I love driving the car. I of course want to challenge them

[Mercedes], but if it is not possible I settle for the best result in the car I have and I am still enjoying it.”

On paper, everything looks to be in place for Red Bull and Honda to build together to a point where they can live up to their own ambitions, with stability in the team and arguably the best driver of the new generation in the car. But there are inevitable questions. Firstly, Honda. It, too, signed a new contract with Red Bull last year – but it was an extension of only one year to the end of 2021, not exactly a powerful statement of commitment. At the time, that was to be the end of the first year of the new regulations. Now, it runs out before they come in. When – and if – will Honda commit to staying longer in Formula 1?

Then, Verstappen. For now, there is nowhere else he could go. Ferrari is committed to Charles Leclerc as its number one until the end of 2024, and in any case is hardly a very appealing prospect following such a dramatic slump in form. And Mercedes is expected to sign a new deal with Hamilton for at least the next two seasons.

But then what? Hamilton will be 36 before the start of next season, and Mercedes is known to be interested in Verstappen as a replacement. By the end of 2022, Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull will have only a year to run, and it will be the driver who is in control of negotiations, not the team.

Does Verstappen still have confidence he can win the title with Red Bull and Honda?

“I do believe in it,” he says. “Of course, for next year it might get a bit complicated because the rules are still the same, but then there are new rules coming in and it’s a new opportunity for everyone.”

“Max is a young guy,” adds Horner, “he’s full of talent, there is only one other car that’s ahead of us at the moment. I don’t know what Lewis Hamilton is going to do over the next few weeks. But Max shares a determination with us that they are ultimately beatable. We would love to win a championship with him and I think vice versa. And that remains absolutely our focus and attention.”

Andrew Benson is BBC Sport’s chief F1 writer