Opinion

BY the time this hits your desk we will know what has come about. We may be facing a coalition of Labour and the SNP, involving another referendum, or another Conservative government, with or without a majority. It would appear the Liberal Party does not have the weight to cancel Brexit so this will either happen or we will have many more months of negotiation, possibly followed by another referendum.

If there is a Labour led coalition, there may also be another independence referendum, as Jeremy Corbyn has suggested this is something he would countenance.

Even if the Conservatives get in, the likelihood of further disruption is possible, though less likely.They will have to negotiate a speedy trade deal with the EU in order to keep goods flowing.All in all, it is an election that nightmares are made of.

I am going to steer very clear of any political view, but someone has to start getting politicians to understand what all this uncertainty is doing to business.

While I have little doubt the Corbyn and his party will attempt to renegotiate the leaving deal, they will be heavily hampered by having stated openly that they will campaign against the very deal that they are negotiating. In such a situation, with no deal off the table, it is hardly credible that the EU will move much.

On the other hand, if the Conservatives get a majority, are we to believe that they will stick by their deal when they have a much stronger hand to play?

There is little doubt, though, that if any party gets a decent majority there will be a greater level of clarity in the UK over the next two years or so.

However, and I guess you know what I am going to say next, another referendum on independence in 2021, which is the earliest that Corbyn said he would consider approving one, makes me shudder. So we get another two years of uncertainty, followed by god knows what!

Again, I am going to avoid being party political but either a Yes or No result gives me the night terrors. Independence would mean a minimum of five years of chaos as a 300-year-old legal relationship is unpicked. Look at how long it is taking to unravel the much younger EU.

If the result is No and the SNP stays in power, as is likely (the Scots are the most conservative nation I know), then we will face further uncertainty as they head for the third referendum.

Of course, if the Conservatives win, they have said no to a referendum in the term of the next parliament but can they really resist if the SNP hold such a significant number of the Scottish seats?

Maybe the Conservatives would take longer before caving in to the SNP but this will only mean an even longer period of uncertainty and pressure on business.

I am sorry if this all sounds bleak, but although I am no longer an active salmon farmer, I am still a beef and sheep farmer.The problems are the same at best, and really worse because agriculture has become a subsidy junkie, dependent on hand-outs to survive.

The uncertainty around agricultural support, allied to the idiotic anti-meat agenda, is forcing farmers not to invest but also to sell off their herds.This may offer opportunity in the long term but there will have to be somebody there to take up the advantage.

People have said that this election is a choice between least worst (as one well known salmon farming critic once judged Loch Duart) and it is hard to argue against that view.

It is especially significant for our industries because lead times are long and customer memories and needs are short.We need to think a long way ahead and our customers have to have product now.All of this make our companies vulnerable.

The greatest strength of farming something is that everybody always needs food.The greatest weakness is that if they can’t get yours, they will have to buy someone else’s.

This means that investment decisions are critical in order to keep supply up. How does a board decide to do that when there is so little solid ground?

I wish you all a very Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year. I hope that the sinking feeling in my stomach is

wrong!

I hope that the sinking feeling in my stomach is wrong