COVID-19 highly likely to become seasonal disease

It looks like cold and flu season could become ‘cold, flu and COVID-19’ season

According to a paper by scientists in Lebanon and Qatar, transmission of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has been more aggressive in temperate regions during winter months. If this pattern persists, it could mean that transmission peaks in winter, becoming a seasonal virus like flu, and other respiratory viruses that cause the common cold.

The seasonality of viruses is affected by a number of factors. Flu tends to peak in winter because people spend more time indoors in close proximity to each other; our immune systems are often weaker in the winter; and the flu virus is more stable at lower temperatures.

The latest knowledge on the stability and transmission of SARSCoV-2 suggests that COVID-19 might follow a similar pattern. “We think it's highly likely, given what we know so far, that COVID-19 will eventually become seasonal,” said Dr Hassan Zaraket at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon.

But the researchers stress that this will only happen once herd immunity is reached, which is where enough people have achieved some level of immunity to COVID-19 – either through contracting the disease or through vaccination – for the disease's spread to be halted.

It's not yet known what percentage of the population will need to become immune for this to happen. But once we reach that point, transmission of COVID-19 should drop off during the summer months as seasonal factors start to have more influence.

Until then, the coronavirus “will continue to cause outbreaks yearround,” said Zaraket. “Therefore, the public will need to learn to live with it and continue practising the best prevention measures, including wearing of masks, physical distancing, hand hygiene and avoidance of gatherings.”