Drakeford: Why Wales has gone into Level 4 lockdown
After a weekend that saw enormous restrictions placed on people in Wales over Christmas, the First Minister has set out why he made that decision. Mark Drakeford spoke to acting political editor Will Hayward about all things Covid-19 and outlined what we
Did you expect the huge queues outside shops on Saturday night after the announcement about the lockdown at midnight?
Mark Drakeford: I think it was inevitable and was not surprised. We talked to the Welsh Government about whether we ought to have given a 48-hour period so the people who run businesses could close them in an orderly way. There was some attraction to me in that idea, but the risk was we would have seen those queues for 48 hours, not just on Saturday night.
Given the state of the virus, it means that we need to avoid each other’s company as much as possible and in the end we just decided we had to go with the most immediate closure that we could manage.
Why did you choose not to allow shops to sell toys in the run-up to Christmas?
MD: I don’t think it will be that difficult to buy toys before Christmas because many places which are essential like newsagents do sell them as well and will be able to.
We said last time that we would reflect on the experience of the firebreak and see if we could come to any different arrangements with supermarkets.
This time is not identical to the firebreak. We are adopting the approach taken in England, where if there are essential and non-essential goods all in the same display, all will be able to be sold in the supermarket. The things that will not be available are in areas where only non-essential goods are sold.
We are also allowing click and collect for all shops during this Level 4 series of restrictions.
Let’s talk logistics – say you have family quite a long way away, if people were to go there for the day, must they leave that same day or can they sleep over and leave in the morning? Is it just there and back in one day, your message?
MD: I am afraid it is. Everything has to be done on the one day. That’s what they should be planning for.
Is there any help for people working Christmas Day? If a nurse is working Christmas Day, will they be allowed to have Christmas Eve or Boxing Day to see their families?
MD: I absolutely see the point that is being made. The Wales TUC has raised this with us on Saturday and we are working to see if it is possible.
It is only the practicalities we have to work through, the basic principle I absolutely see the sense of and would like something to happen.
Can we find a practical way to help this quite large number of people? We have to work with the lawyers and the trade unions on that and that is what we are doing at the moment.
How has this new variant become so widespread in Wales so quickly?
MD: We first heard about it in Wales, I think, in November. But that was alongside a lot of other variations. Coronavirus is mutating all the time. The difference with this one is that it has demonstrated that it can infect people quicker than the original coronavirus.
What started as just a small number of people at the very beginning of last week, when they’re about 10 cases here in Wales, became 20 cases by the end of the week and then over the weekend it became clear that in fact, if you looked at the Lighthouse Lab data, there were already hundreds of cases here in Wales.
Now that is telling us that this particular variation is much more aggressive than the original one. It isn’t more serious, you won’t get a more serious illness, and as far as we know the vaccines will be equally effective at dealing with it, it’s just far more people will get it.
When extra people get it, some of those people are going to be very ill, and some of those people are going to need hospital beds and we are already very full in hospitals.
As it is easier to catch and it spreads quicker, are we going to need to revise for advice on social distancing? How will it affect guidance in workplaces and schools?
MD: I think the basic advice remains the same – a 2m distance, wearing a face mask and washing your hands. All of those things are just even more important.
As for workplaces and schools, one of the things which I think this variant is particularly emphasising is the importance of ventilation.
We will be revising our guidance to workplaces to make sure that it reflects the most up-to-date scientific advice taking into account the more aggressive nature of this version of the virus.
■ What is the current situation in care homes? (In the past 28 days about 30% of care homes in Wales have reported confirmed cases.)
MD: Once coronavirus is on the move, it gets in anywhere. Vaccines are not going to come to the rescue in the next week or two, given the seriousness of the situation, but they are all things that are going to accelerate the improvement that we are hoping to see next year.
The speed at which we can roll the vaccine out in care homes depends on two things.
First is supplies of the current vaccine. I heard a piece of good news earlier today that a big delivery of the Pfizer vaccine had arrived in the United Kingdom today.
This is despite some of the difficulties around the port. If we get a second vaccine, the Oxford vaccine, and it is approved, that will accelerate even further because that vaccine is easier to transport and easier to deliver. We are still optimistic that may get the go-ahead before the end of this calendar year.
What would be a time where you would hope we would have complete vaccination in care homes as far as possible? Would you hope by the spring?
MD: I think the spring is a pretty fair estimate. It is unlikely to be completed in the first quarter of 2021, but by the time we get into April and May I would be hopeful then that we will have as good coverage in the care home population as possible.
Parents all over Wales want to know what your plans are for schools – what is your best estimate as to what a return to schools looks like in January?
MD: At the moment I still think we should be planning on a flexible period for the first two weeks to get as many of our young people back into school as possible.
As ever, we are talking about balance. We know that so many children, particularly vulnerable children and particularly children from those households where there is no easy access to resources, then those children’s prospects have been badly damaged in the last 10 months by schools not being able to operate. It is a real priority for us and it continues to be.
A flexible, phased return in the first two weeks will allow individual headteachers to take account of the particular circumstances in their particular school. It will also allow us to press on with our plans for serial testing of people in schools so that if one child tests positive we won’t need every child to be sent home. We will continue to discuss with teacher unions, parents and with local education authorities.
Looking at the cases in Wales at the moment, why have you opted not to have a regional approach? As someone asked us on social media: “If it were the other way around, and North Wales had the cases that South Wales had and vice versa, would you be locking down south Wales?”
MD: I am confident to say to you that the answer is yes.
I’m afraid that the figures in this morning in Anglesey and Gwynedd are rising again.
If I thought that the figures in North Wales were reliably and consistently lower than they were elsewhere, then I would think about a regional approach.
Given that it will take at least three weeks to move down a level, could it be well into April before some pubs can open?
MD: I want a threeweek review because if there are opportunities to begin to restore freedoms in any part of life in Wales, I want to make sure we take those opportunities. But pubs that simply serve drink and no food at all, they are a long way from where we are today.
Given that golf is allowed in England, why have golf courses and outdoor tennis courts closed?
MD: My postbag here is full of people saying “why can’t this happen?” or “why can’t that happen?”. Just as golf courses and tennis have their advocates, we also have people who want to go fishing and people who want to fly pigeons. There is a neverending group of people who are able to make a good case for why their interests should be an exception. Things in Wales are just too serious to do that.
Let’s look at the future – give me some best and worst-case scenarios to what we could look like towards the end of January.
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■ MD: Our most difficult days are likely to be in the first two weeks of January. That will be before the current restrictions begin to make an impact and when winter pressures, which are always at their height at the start of the new year, are hitting as well. The first two weeks are going to be very tough indeed within the health service.
Beyond that, I think we will begin to see the impact of what we are doing now. At the same time, the number of people getting the vaccine will be going up and we will be heading into the better time of the year in terms of the weather. We will also be able to use rapid testing, which will be improving.
Can you tell us the timeline for vaccines being rolled out? When will everyone over 60 have received a vaccine? When will all of us have received one?
MD: I think it is genuinely difficult to give a specific date for that. I think it is going to be into the second quarter of 2021 before we see enough people being vaccinated for that to begin to make a community-wide difference.
Is there anything you would have done differently?
MD: I genuinely think it would have been difficult to do things differently. My experience of dealing with the pandemic is that in Wales we have generally moved further and faster than other parts of the United Kingdom and as a result we run into quite a lot of flak. There is a struggle sometimes to persuade people it’s been necessary for us to do this.