22,000 Welsh properties at risk of being lost to flooding
EVERY property in Wales cannot be protected from future flooding and it does not make financial sense to protect all at-risk properties, a report into the impact of long-term flooding in Wales says.
The report says over the next 100 years, one in four more properties in Wales will be at risk from river flooding and almost 50% more than are currently at risk of tidal flooding could be impacted.
Natural Resources Wales (NRW) says while it will continue to invest and maintain flood defences, it cannot provide 100% protection.
As the impact of climate change gets worse, flood defences would need to be made higher and or stronger but the head of flooding at the agency has admitted it is not “feasible or cost-effective in all locations” to increase or invest in flood defences.
The overall boss of NRW admits there will need to be “difficult conversations” about whether money is spent to protect areas “with limited properties and fewer economic benefits”.
The report says high-risk locations in Wales will always be beneficial to invest in as the bulk of the properties at risk are within them.
However, more than 22,000 properties are uneconomical to invest in when assessed nationally.
When investment is focused solely on locations that are economical to do so, only 13% of defended areas are proven to be economically viable to keep pace with climate change.
However, 70% of the total properties at risk across Wales are located within these defended areas.
For context, Storm Dennis in February 2020 was one of the most significant weather events to hit Wales in over a generation and 2,200 households and 565 non-residential properties were flooded.
NRW has published a report looking at the long-term requirements for flood defences in Wales looking at four scenarios, including keeping pace with climate change for all existing defences, investing only in defences that are cost-beneficial, investing only in locations at the highest risk, and the impacts of investing at current funding levels.
Chief executive of NRW Clare Pillman said: “This report aims to help understand the investment required in flood defences to reduce that risk to people over the next century.
“It will trigger difficult conversations about where investment is focussed and approaches that may need to be taken in areas with limited properties and fewer economic benefits but it is crucial that we have those conversations now.”
The report says more than 22,000 homes in Wales are currently behind flood defences that are uneconomical to invest in.
It does not name the areas which are most at risk, but a report published by the same agency in November did that.
The communities in Wales that are projected to experience the biggest change in danger from the risk of flooding from rivers include four Cardiff areas – Canton, Grangetown, Leckwith and Riverside.
Elsewhere in Wales, the communities most at risk from river flooding are: Kinmel Bay; Llanelli; Port Talbot; Towyn; Tirphil (New Tredegar); and Troedyrhiw.
When it comes to sea flooding, meanwhile, the areas most at risk include four Cardiff suburbs, three of which already appear on the river flooding risk list.
By 2120, the communities in Wales that are projected to experience the biggest change in danger from the risk of flooding from the sea are Butetown, Canton, Grangetown and Riverside in Cardiff; Llandudno; Llanelli; Maindee in Newport; Prestatyn; and Rhyl.
The new report does not include homes yet to be built, or council assets.
NRW says doing nothing is not an option, but it needs to look at how flood risks are managed.
It says that keeping pace with climate change everywhere comes at a significant cost, requiring 3.4 times current funding levels.
Keeping funding at current levels results in more than 18,000 additional properties remaining at high risk and residual damages increasing by £800m over the appraisal period.
But the report concludes if it is not possible to fund repairs in “scenario A” – which requires 3.4 times the current funding level – then efforts will have to be prioritised.
“However, reducing the investment inherently leads to a greater number of properties at risk,” it reads.
“Scenario D (current funding levels) has the highest benefit for every £1 spent, but it also has the highest number of properties left at high risk.
“Scenario A is overall cost beneficial, yet hundreds of uneconomical assets will receive funding based on the benefits of defending highly populated areas elsewhere,” it concludes.
It says the decisions cannot be put off despite there being limited impacts for the next 20-25 years.
“Although the data shows that climate change does not have a significant impact on damages until later in the appraisal period, it is important to clarify that this does not mean that we can wait,” it adds.
“Large-scale construction schemes and adaptation strategies take years of planning, as does securing long term budgets.”
Ms Pillman said: “There is no denying that the biggest challenge of our era is the climate emergency.
“We have certainly been dealing with the very real impacts of that recently, with multiple named storms hitting Welsh shores over recent weeks and months.
“How we manage greater flood risk in the future will become even more challenging as climate change accelerates.
“This report aims to help understand the investment required in flood defences to reduce that risk to people over the next century.
“It will trigger difficult conversations about where investment is focussed and approaches that may need to be taken in areas with limited properties and fewer economic benefits but it is crucial that we have those conversations now.
“We will never be able to stop all flooding, and the risks are increasing. Which is why governments of all levels, businesses and communities must work together now – to plan effectively, and act to manage the increasing risks of flooding that we are seeing now and that will continue in the future.”
Jeremy Parr, head of flood and incident risk management at NRW, said: “While we will continue to invest and maintain our flood defences, they cannot provide 100% protection.
“Defences can be overtopped, or they can fail. They also need to keep pace with climate change if they are to continue to provide the same standard of protection.
“This means they will need to be higher and stronger, and maintained to be fit for purpose but this isn’t feasible or cost-effective in all locations.
“We need to understand what is possible – and desirable – over the long term.
“We know that we will need to do things differently if we are to address the bigger challenges ahead.
“This includes using natural flood management methods wherever we can, avoiding development in high risk flood areas, taking whole catchment approaches, improving further our flood forecasting and encouraging people to sign up for free flood warnings.
“We have to take the risks seriously. Climate change is happening now, and we are seeing the evidence all around us.
“We need to move the adaptation debate forward in Wales and bring everyone with a stake in the outcome together to design and deliver the holistic approach needed for future flood risk management, and to get ready for the unavoidable impacts of climate change.”
A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “We welcome the publication of NRW’s report, which once again highlights the impact of the climate emergency.
“There are difficult challenges ahead and we are working closely with communities to establish how they can remain safe in the shortterm, while planning to adapt for the future.
“No community has been written off and we continue to fund, strengthen, and maintain our flood defence infrastructure in Wales to keep communities safe.”