» Groups look to the future without EU deal as deadline nears

THERE is less than six months to go before the March deadline for the UK to leave the European Union.

With little more than 150 days to go until the Brexit finish line, the prospect of no deal being in place is increasingly likely.

What it will mean for Gloucestershire if negotiators fail to secure a Withdrawal Agreement?

Research by the London School of Economics lists Gloucester as number 20 out of the 62 areas likely to be hardest hit in terms of economic output.

Their figures suggest Cheltenham will also find it very tough, but Tewkesbury, the Cotswolds and the Forest of Dean will not be hit as hard.

But what would a no-deal Brexit mean? We asked the movers and shakers in the county.

Business Federation of Small Businesses spokesman Sam Holliday

“The FSB has members with the broadest possible range of views on what is still a very divisive subject.

“Among our small business-owning members in Gloucestershire and beyond, we have those who are desperate for a second people’s referendum or a reversal of the original result, those who are adamant the first referendum was indeed the people’s referendum and want us to go full steam ahead with the process and many others who are somewhere in between.

“What I don’t find very often though is businesses that see any merit in no deal.

“Why? Because the whole essence of business is about making deals - not running away from them and plunging into the unknown without a financial safety net.

“Every day in this county, SMES are sitting down with their clients and customers negotiating and bargaining about the best price for products and services.

“Once agreed by both parties, deals are signed off and business is underway - simple.

“The idea, therefore, that his is the right way to do business for even the smallest firms in the land but not for our country dealing with the biggest trading partner in the world seems very bizarre.

“There are many reasons why a no deal is a very worrying option.

“For instance, it could have implications on import and export tariffs, could affect firms looking to recruit workers from the EU who might be concerned about coming with no formal agreement in place, could concern innovative businesses if we are not able to remain within the Unitary Patent System and could affect people using EU trademarks or registered standards and design.

“And what of the Eu-backed business support schemes in the UK? Without an agreement on their future could this affect local business support?

“The one thing that seemingly all businesses agree on with Brexit is that we need some certainty and stability going forward.

“Yes, every possible deal we hear off is not without its dangers or flaws but surely the biggest danger of all lies in having no deal at all because the level of uncertainty and anxiety that will create for the small businesses who are the lifeblood of our economy can only increase enormously.

“Deal or no deal? There surely is only one choice”.

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Recruitment Gareth Gage, director of international recruitment consultancy Robert Half which has offices in Cheltenham.

“It is impossible to say what the impact of a no deal would be on Gloucestershire or on the country as a whole, given the UK’S exit from the European Union is still in negotiation.

“One thing that is certain is that even before Brexit, many companies within the region were struggling to find candidates with the right, specialist skills to fill gaps created by digitalisation and the evolution of traditional roles, particularly with accounting, finance and technology departments.

“From a recruitment perspective, the demand among businesses for these skills will continue to grow, intensifying the war for talent in the county.

“The skills desired within certain roles remain specialist and unobtainable without presenting a competitive employment offer.

“The evolution of the workplace and digital transformation coupled with the potential impacts of Brexit means businesses must adapt recruitment strategies to ensure they are equipped with the right talent to keep up.

“Attracting, securing and retaining the right talent will rely on faster hiring times, flexible recruitment strategies, training and development and competitive remuneration packages.”

County Council Peter Bungard, chief executive of Gloucestershire County Council

“We have produced two reports on the potential impact of Brexit on the county, the most recent presented to Gloucestershire Economic Growth Joint Committee in March.

“Although there is not much we can do until the outcome of the Brexit negotiations are fully understood, the Local Government Association issued guidance for local authorities which we will work to.”

Read the full report to the Gloucestershire Economic Growth Joint Committee at glostext.gloucestershire. gov.uk/documents Agriculture

Angus Davison, the founder of Haygrove Fruit near Ledbury, said in February he planned to move some of the company’s raspberry and blueberrygrowing to China because of uncertainty over migrant labour due to Brexit.

He said it was already too late to come to a deal that would suit the company because he has to plan each year’s harvest in advance.

He needs to find more than 1,000 seasonal fruit pickers or the strawberries could rot in the fields.

He wrote to Prime Minister Theresa May saying: “Unless a seasonal workers scheme is put in place, you must expect to see the steep decline of this significant rural employer and source of food.

“It is appreciated that treating one industry differently to another is difficult, however agriculture, unlike construction and hospitality, can be exported.

“If enough people are not made available to do the work, the work can be taken to the people.” The company did not reply to our request for an update on the possibility

of a no deal Brexit.

» Gfirst LEP

The body which administers millions of pounds of regeneration cash across Gloucestershire will have a crucial rule to play when European grants start to dry up.

A Gloucestershire County Council report says the county will need to replace the European Structural Investment Fund, which could mean reviewing remaining funding allocations with the local enterprise partnership.

Gfirst has distributed cash for major infrastructure projects such as £4.7million for a new bus station in Gloucester, £3.8million to the Cinderford Northern Quarter spine road and £2million for the Gloucester south west bypass.

It might have to review any projects in the pipeline so the cash can be used to plug any gaps in EU funding.

» Further Education

Sally Hunt, leader of the largest union of higher education staff, has claimed a no-deal Brexit would be disastrous for UK higher education.

The general secretary of the University and College Union described it as the “biggest challenge facing higher education”.

The union said no deal could lead to significantly less access to research funding and a rise in academics leaving UK universities, while EU students would be left “in the lurch”.

» Travel Agents

Holidaymakers are likely to face higher prices in Europe if the pound collapses as predicted in some quarters if there is no deal.

They may also need health cover because the European Health Insurance scheme may no longer apply.

Neither will they enjoy automatic protection from mobile and data roaming charges.

Although many Brexit supporters have welcomed passports reverting from burgundy to blue, UK citizens could face longer queues at customs, passport control and security.

Anyone with a passport older than nine years and six months on the date of travel will need to be renew it and you will need an International Driving Permit to hire a car in Europe.

If individual agreements cannot be reached on air travel, the Government has suggested flights to Europe could be grounded.

That has been refuted this month at the Association of British Travel Association convention in Seville as a no deal Brexit would hit the European tourism industry harder than the UK.

Their biggest concern is that uncertainty is stopping people booking holidays and city breaks.

» Workers

Unions fear workers could lose rights enshrined in European law when the UK leaves Europe.

But a survey this week shows just three per cent of companies in the south west want to revert to the pre- EU Health & Safety at Work Act 1974.

Most want the UK to transfer the same health and safety policies after March.

But in the longer term they believe Brexit will allow a review of health and safety regulations within the UK.

Manufacturers say sticking to existing rules would avoid cost and disruption to their businesses, but larger companies are more keen for change.

According to the survey, 42 per cent of companies want no change to the regulatory regime, while a further 55 per cent want no immediate change followed by a review at a later date.

The research carried out by health and safety company Arco and manufacturers’ organisation EEF found firms in the region want the British Standards Institution to continue to play a leading role in European standards.