WHAT DOES 2019 HAVE IN STORE FOR PROPERTY IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE?

A NEW YEAR: a time for reflection, as well as for planning. Amongst these plans may be a house move, or a first step in to property investment. Yet media headlines might dissuade you from making such plans for fear of not realising a good price for your existing property, or of making a poor investment decision. The fear may not be as bad as you anticipate. Aside from London, where prices fell on average by 1% last year, the rest of the UK performed reasonably well with overall growth of 2%. Across Gloucestershire, that figure was 7.1% so it’s worth remembering that headlines often focus on worse case scenarios! Likewise, whilst the first three quarters of last year saw 9.2% fewer sales in Gloucestershire compared to the previous year, this is significantly less drastic than the wider South West region where sales were down 14.5%. But what about the year ahead? The big topic is, of course, Brexit. The impact that this will have on the housing market can’t be underestimated, but quite what it will be is still to be seen. Undoubtedly, until the reality of leaving the EU starts to roll out, there will remain a certain level of uncertainty. This will discourage those who don’t need to move, to stay put and see if they can achieve a higher price later in the year after Brexit chaos has subsided. A likely occurrence in 2019 will be that interest rates rise, albeit at a modest rate and to a limited extent, although the Bank of England may increase rates to counter inflation in the case of a no-deal exit. That said, 2019 should remain positive for first time buyers. The incentives that have been introduced to support them in recent years will continue and mortgage rates remain low with many competitive five-year products still being offered. For the first time buyer, now is as good a time as any to make that move. “Expert” views for 2019 are a mixed bag but are weighted mostly in favour of growth – albeit remaining conservatively cautious, with no predictions higher than a 4%. The worst-case scenario is a price drop of 5%. We lean towards cautious growth and believe for Gloucestershire, this will sit somewhere in the region of 2%.