OUR MAN IN WESTMINSTER All you need to know about the European elections
NICK Clegg probably could not believe what he was seeing in the early hours of June 9, 2017, as the general election results rolled in. Not only would the former deputy prime minister lose his own Sheffield Hallam seat but he also witnessed what seemed to be the entrenchment of a two party state in Britain.
It was goodbye to the Cleggmania of 2010 when the Liberal Democrats were kingmakers as the third largest party and hello to the old rivalry between the Conservatives and Labour, as voters rallied behind Jeremy Corbyn’s reds to wipe out the small majority that Theresa May inherited from predecessor David Cameron.
But Brexit and the divides it has created could be about to open the door to smaller parties once again – not least Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party. The Prime Minister was forced to negotiate an extension to Article 50 – the process for leaving the European Union – due to her on-going struggle to find support for her withdrawal agreement (and her belief that Parliament would always block a no-deal scenario).
What was once an expected exit date of March 29 slipped back first to April 12 and now to October 31 – a Halloween Brexit. The difficulty with the long extension is that the UK will now have to field candidates in the upcoming European Parliament election on May 23 – three years after the majority of voters in the 2016 referendum opted to leave the EU.
The move could well give a new platform to emerging parties vying for the remain and leave causes and see the Conservatives capitulate.
It might sound backwards given North East Lincolnshire Council is now preparing for (and spending money on) hosting the European Parliament elections but the PM is determined for them not to goahead.
She has secured a break clause in the Article 50 extension with the EU, meaning that if she can get a withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons by May 22 – the day before voters are due to make their mark on the ballot paper – then the UK will not have to take part in the European elections. It might cost the Government money – it has agreed to reimburse councils for any preparations they have to make should the poll be pulled at the last minute – but Mrs May seems to regard the expense as better than the possible political fall-out. Having promised more than 100 times that Britain would have left the EU by March 29, it is not a good look for the PM to then to lead her party into a European election, which is taking place almost three months after that scheduled leave date and three years after the referendum result.
She knows the Conservative Party could take a real hammering on May 23 as leave voters look to punish the governing party for its failure to deliver Brexit.
Polling company YouGov has predicted the Tories will take 16 per cent of the vote at the election – 7 per cent less than under Mr Cameron’s leadership in 2014. Mr Farage’s recently founded Brexit Party is close behind on 15 per cent, according to YouGov, with the UK Independence Party (Ukip) a point behind its fledgling Eurosceptic rivals. Labour, meanwhile, are polling with a national vote share of 24 per cent – only a 1 per cent dip on their 2014 result.
Four years ago the Yorkshire and Humber region, which includes North East Lincolnshire, elected only one Tory MEP, three Ukip MEPs and two Labour MEPs. The national polling indicates a May 23 trip to the polls could wipe out the Tories altogether in the region, in terms of European representation – an obliteration the PM would rather avoid. Mrs May has to do the thing that has eluded her for five long months – pass her withdrawal agreement. Do that by May 22 and the EU would regard Britain’s divorce from Brussels as final and the transition period (effectively a two-year grace period) would kick-in.
After three defeats on her withdrawal terms, the PM finally turned to Labour a fortnight ago to seek a consensus Brexit agreement, with the teams still locked in talks currently.
MPs returned from their Easter break on April 23, so time will still be tight for the Commons to pass a compromise deal – should one materialise – before the polling date. Having the European elections looming should focus minds for those who want to see Brexit delivered. If there is no sign of the two parties sealing a Brexit deal shortly after Easter – negotiators are currently divided into three teams to work on the key issues of employment rights, the environment and national security – then the PM might well order her own series of Commons votes on possible options to find out what exit model can secure a majority. She will have her time cut out to do all that before May 22. The main parties to watch are the Brexit Party, led by ex-Ukip man Mr Farage, and Change UK, the official name of the pro-EU group of Tory and Labour defectors who originally called themselves The Independent Group. The parties, both founded this year, say they are gearing up to stand candidates in every party of the country, meaning those turning out in North East Lincolnshire should get a chance to vote for them.
What will be interesting is whether either are able to break the two party model that was refused at the 2017 election and secure themselves a voice on a major stage.
Mr Farage already has a strong personal following and 12 former Ukip MEPs have defected to his new political vehicle, including Yorkshire and the Humber’s Jane Collins. However, he will find the Brexit Party pitted against his former Ukip cohort, now under the stewardship of Gerard Batten who has brought the party further to the right, and the pair could well nullify each other in a fight for similar ground. Change UK, meanwhile, say they have been inundated with applications to stand as candidates with 3,700 people writing in for only 73 available spots. Whether such grassroots enthusiasm for remaining in the EU and for a second referendum will translate into votes from across the country will only be seen if the May 23 poll goes ahead.
Currently, Labour’s polling seems to be holding up, so Mr Corbyn’s party could be set to survive fairly unscathed, although party sources have expressed concern that they could face backlash as one of the mainstream outfits, especially in solid Labour voting areas. It might seem odd but voters are now being asked to register for an election that might never take place. North East Lincolnshire Council has offered guidance that anyone with the right to vote must be registered by Tuesday, May 7. The deadline for new postal vote applications or to cancel a proxy voting arrangement is the following day.
To be eligible to vote, those registering must be a British, Irish, a qualifying Commonwealth or EU citizen and be aged 18 years or older on polling day
EU citizens wanting to vote in the UK must complete a “European Parliamentary Voter Registration” form and return it to the council’s elections team on the same day as the registration deadline of May 7. There are concerns that the Brexit delay will lead to voter apathy and that the European elections next month will see comically low turnouts across the country.
But for those who are angry, disaffected, annoyed or even baffled by what is going on with Brexit, the surest way to let politicians know how you feel is to vote.
Poll or no poll on May 23, register and be prepared for any eventuality – even if that turns out to be an election that never was.