THE INSURGENT’S DILEMMA

INSURGENTS ARE RARELY STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE A CREDIBLE THREAT TO ESTABLISHED POWER, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN LEARNING NEW WAYS TO PLY THEIR TRADE

Author: David H Ucko

Publisher: Hurst & Co

Price: £30

Format: Hardback

Released: Out now

The depth of scholarship that David H Ucko has invested in his analysis of insurgencies is reflected in the author’s 164 pages of notes and bibliography, accounting for more than a third of the book. As the author points out, insurgents may fail to overthrow an established regime deploying superior firepower, but they are adept at giving their opponents a run for their money.

From Darius’s frustration at his enemy’s evasion in the Scythian campaign of 513 BCE, to Napoleon’s anger at guerrilla resistance during the Peninsular War, states struggle when faced with insurgency. Yet, in reviewing the overall experience in recent years, there are exceedingly few instances in which they have succeeded in seizing sustained power. Gone are the days when insurgents could mobilise rural populations and build coercive capability to make a conventional showdown a feasible path to power. Consider the recent experience of ISIS, who were all but vaporised by superior conventional forces within three years. However, in the likewise Islamic scenario of Afghanistan, it is painfully obvious that the well-organised Taliban succeeded in prevailing over a democratically elected government and its armed forces.

Ucko’s study analyses three insurgency approaches. First, there’s an insurgency that restricts its objectives to specific local targets rather than aim for regime change. Secondly, the infiltrative type competes quasi-legally while using violence behind the scenes. Finally, the ideational insurgency is united by an idea rather than territory and is more difficult to suppress militarily. “Given these trends,” says the author, “it is becoming increasingly important to rethink insurgency and also the strategies of response.” The way forward, he argues, is for states to articulate what they are fighting for, not just the threats they seek to defeat.