Are you confident a second independence referendum will be held in October 2023?

Roger Mullin

“That would be an easier question to answer a week ago. The answer a few weeks ago was yes. I was broadly supportive of the strategy. The sensible thing to recognise at the moment is there’s a lot of uncertainty, but not to suddenly imagine that this [the cost-of-living crisis] provides a different opportunity to pursue anything at the current time. Nobody has got a crystal ball, no one knows where we’re going to be in a week or two, not just economically but also politically.”

Sandra White

“I do think there’ll be a second independence referendum, though whether or not that will come through a Section 30 is unclear. Some people say the members are angry because it’s taken so long to get to this position, but I would say it’s probably frustration on their part. And obviously if the Supreme Court says no, then where do we go from there? I think members are frustrated it is taking so long to get the Section 30, but I think Sturgeon has played a blinder. She was proactive, and went to the Westminster government, so we have the reply from them saying we can’t have it. We have the argument then, that says this is supposed to be a union. You can’t be a union of equals, if one of them is telling you what to do.”

Alex Neil

“We need to be realistic about it, and it’s quite clear from the lord advocate’s submission, she doesn’t appear to believe that we have the power, and no previous lord advocates have privately said they believe the Scotland Act 1998 gives us the power. I don’t think we’ll get a referendum without a Section 30 order, and that means in terms of the strategy laid out by Nicola Sturgeon, it means the next hurdle will be to get 50 per cent of the vote in a UK general election in 2023 or 2024.”

Colin Fox

“I think the Supreme Court strategy is a complete sign of desperation. Nicola Sturgeon was a lawyer. The first thing lawyers learn is never ask a question you don’t know the answer to – ahead of that is never ask a question you know the answer to! On the question of whether the Scotland Act gives the Scottish Parliament the power to legislate for a referendum, I think a five-year-old could answer that. She’s going to have to go with her tail between her legs and cancel the October 2023 referendum – she’s going to have to un-announce the referendum.”

Blair Jenkins

“I do. I mean, primarily because I think there has to be. I mean, if the UK is to be regarded as a functioning democracy, then there’s a very clear mandate from the Scottish election last year. I would agree that it’s, going to take a few twists and turns over the next period, but I do think there will be a referendum next year. And that’s without anticipating what the court judgement might be.” •