Tokyo predictions
Who will be the eventing medallists next year?
Mark Todd – double Olympic champion
“WHEN I bought McClaren, I said he was a potential medal winner, so I’m going to stick by that – he and new rider Jonelle Price have an individual shot.
“The Germans have strength in depth but it’s all about horsepower. Michael Jung’s ride FischerChipmunk FRH is seriously smart and Ingrid Klimke is always competitive.
“There isn’t a standout among the Brits for an individual medal – William Fox-Pitt, Pippa Funnell, Gemma Tattersall, Piggy March, Tom McEwen, Oliver Townend and Ros Canter are all capable if they have the right horse.
“For team medals, I’d favour Germany, Britain and New Zealand and also put France, Australia and Ireland in as contenders.”
Sam Watson – world team silver medallist and co-founder of data analytics company EquiRatings
“I’M boldly omitting the German onetwo from the Europeans as I think two rounds of showjumping go against both FischerChipmunk FRH and SAP Hale Bob.
“But I’m sticking with Germany for gold – Samourai Du Thot and Julia Krajewski.
People will pick holes in their championship form, and they do carry higher risk than some, but this pair is more likely than anyone else to win in my book. An eventing favourite looks like a 15% chance, so 85% of the time we’ll be wrong!
“For silver, I’m choosing Tom McEwen. If Derek di Gracia builds a twisty track then Toledo De Kerser’s enormous stride might not be seen to best effect, but they have no weakness and two rounds of showjumping only adds to his considerable chances.
“I’m giving Boyd Martin my final individual podium position. As a type, Tsetserleg wouldn’t be my paddock pick, but eventing is not about looks or style – it’s about a low score and he can produce one, plus he’s done it over a Derek di Gracia cross-country course at Kentucky.
“In the teams, Germany will lead after phase one and probably phase two, but Great Britain can overtake for their first Olympic team gold since 1972.”
Bettina Hoy – three-time Olympian
“GERMANY, Britain and Australia – who are used to dealing with heat and humidity – will be strong. I’d also include the Japanese as a team medal chance – their riders are technically correct and they have invested in top-class horses. France are always difficult to judge, but have delivered in the past. New Zealand may find it hard to find the right third rider to run beside Tim and Jonelle Price, which could jeopardise a team medal.
“It’s difficult to pick the team gold medallist, but if Michael Jung, Ingrid Klimke and Sandra Auffarth are on form, with sound, fit horses, Germany has it. All three have delivered under pressure.
“All three of those Germans are potential individual medallists, but with three to a team, tactics could affect chances. I rate Tom McEwen – I like the way he rides and Toledo De Kerser – as well as Chris Burton and the Prices.”
Nicole Brown – eventing commentator and podcaster
“I’VE whittled the individual down to three, but not in any order. Michael Jung and FischerChipmunk FRH are an obvious pick. I’ll be watching them carefully in the showjumping, especially with two rounds, but Michael has only missed one individual championship podium since 2009, when he didn’t contest the Tryon World Championships.
“I couldn’t have a podium without a Brit and have chosen double Kentucky winners Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class. They won’t lead the first phase, but will stay close and should finish on their dressage score.
“The third pair is Chris Burton and Clever Louis, though Chris has so many horses qualified. Chris is the fastest rider in the world and over an eight-minute cross-country track, that will play a big part.
“From my heart, I have to say team gold for Britain. They’ll be chasing Germany after the first phase, but I hope traditional cross-country prowess will see us rise.
“Germany have won two of the last three Olympic team golds and will be the ones to beat, while I think Australia will repeat their Rio team bronze.
“I’d love to see Japan do well at their home Games, nine years after their Olympic debut, and the US’s young horses could benefit from a year’s delay.”
Julian Seaman – Badminton media director and former top-level competitor
“TOKYO could turn out to be a bit of a dressage competition. The eight-minute crosscountry might mean people don’t need the stamina of a Badminton or Burghley horse – thoroughbreds might be less favoured – but then the heat could change things.
“You can’t bet against Jonelle and Tim Price – it’s not long ago they won Badminton and Burghley in the same year – and that makes New Zealand a strong team prospect. If I had to name an individual gold medallist, I’d pick Tim.
“Britain should give them a run for their money, with Tom McEwen and Piggy March, plus perhaps Oliver Townend or Ros Canter. They all win rather than buckle under strain.
“Germany, Ireland and Australia could also be in the shake-up, as could Japan. I spent a month in Japan in 1973 on a Pony Club exchange and rode a cross-country course on the site of the Winter Olympics at Sapporo – I jumped an obstacle under the ski jump!”
Mike Etherington-Smith – two-time Olympic course-designer
“IT’S hard to look beyond Germany, New Zealand and Britain, but Japan could break into the run of usual suspects.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the individual threw up a winner from outside the favourites – Olympics can do that – but Andrew Hoy has a couple of good horses and I also wonder about the Germans, the Prices, Chris Burton and many of the Brits, including Tom McEwen and William Fox-Pitt.
“William’s Little Fire or Piggy March’s Vanir Kamira are the right stamp of horses, which is critical in that climate. You need something with a lot of blood, athletic, nimble, which conserves energy well and won’t be fazed by the heat.
“The cross-country is undulating and the climate is potentially hotter and more humid than Hong Kong, where we were lucky with the weather on the day. You have to consistently plan for bad conditions as a designer, while trying to provide a real test.”