Tokyo predictions
Looking ahead to next year’s postponed Olympics, who will take the dressage medals? H&H dressage editor Polly Bryan asks the experts
Who will claim the dressage medals next year? H&H takes a look at the contenders
David Stickland – founder of Global Dressage Analytics
“AS of March this year, I had Germany, Denmark and Britain down to win team medals in Tokyo. Looking ahead to next year, I’d say that Germany would still be the favourite for gold, although I had actually predicted an almost identical result from Germany and Denmark this year.
“But if Daniel Bachmann Andersen will no longer be riding Zack or Zepter in Tokyo, having now moved on from Blue Hors, that could take a chunk out of Denmark’s chances, though they would still be a strong team with Cathrine Dufour and Carina Cassøe Krüth.
“For Britain, I think Lottie Fry is the future, and she has very good horses for next year.
“Due to the retirement of Laura Graves’ Verdades, the USA, as well as the Netherlands and Sweden, would have probably been fighting it out for fourth place this year, and
I’d expect that to be the same next year. Saying that, there are younger horses coming through, so who knows?”
John Kyle – international equestrian commentator
“EARLIER this year, I’d say gold and silver were more or less set – Germany and Britain – followed by a strong chasing pack with a chance of bronze: the Netherlands,
Sweden and Denmark.
“I think Britain could have won gold – Germany’s Isabell Werth on any horse obviously helps her team enormously, but I do think the other German riders are beatable.
“Next year could be very exciting for Ireland, even if they are not likely medal contenders. The age of their anchorwoman Judy Reynolds’ Vancouver K is concerning, as he will be 19, but she doesn’t need to run him very much to prove he should be selected, so she can really look after him. For the other Irish riders, an extra 12 months of development, and also being seen by five-star judges, will be beneficial.
“For the individual title, I only had two names in my mind for this year and for next. Isabell Werth could probably win an individual medal on a beach donkey, and then of course there’s Britain’s Charlotte Dujardin.”
Richard Davison – four-time Olympian, FEI dressage committee member and Tokyo team contender
“I WOULD have been very surprised and disappointed if Britain hadn’t come home from Tokyo 2020 with a medal, but sport and horses are unpredictable and having no drop score makes it even more so. Personally, having an extra year is lovely – it’s just what my top horse, Bubblingh, needed. It means we might see some new, different horses on the British team next year, but I don’t think the extra year will make a big difference to where the medals go.
“The big battle will still be between
Britain’s Charlotte Dujardin and Germany’s Isabell Werth. I saw Charlotte’s Mount St
John Freestyle at Amsterdam in January and thought she looked great, but you can never underestimate Isabell. And maybe somebody else will come out of the woodwork – I do think there will be different young pretenders jostling, not just for selection, but in terms of pushing their teams onto the podium.”
Kyra Kyrklund – six-time Finnish Olympian
“THE year’s delay works for some teams and against others. Back in March, Germany certainly seemed to be very strong, as they always are, and I think they would definitely have won the gold medal. Isabell Werth has a whole string of very good horses, and I think Jessica von Bredow-Werndl could have won an individual medal this year. They might well field the same line-up next year too.
“Denmark will still have a good chance. This year, Cathrine Dufour could have ridden European medallist Atterupgaards Cassidy or 10-year-old Bohemian, but now it is next year it’s quite clear that it will be Bohemian, who will benefit from an extra year.
“It’s probably good for Britain to have an extra year too – Gio now looks like an exciting prospect for Charlotte Dujardin.”
Natasha Baker – Paralympic multi-medallist and international dressage commentator
“INDIVIDUALLY it was going to be tight between Isabell Werth, her team-mate Jessica von Bredow-Werndl, Charlotte Dujardin and Denmark’s Cathrine Dufour. It’s very tough to choose between them; Jessica was phenomenal at the Neumünster World Cup qualifier, and there was still more to come from her mare, TSF Dalera BB. Cathrine’s young horse Bohemian has also been getting some mega scores, and then of course Isabell and Charlotte have been playing tennis with each other throughout the World Cup season.
“I think it was shaping up to be the toughest battle we’ve seen in dressage for a long time, and I hope it will be next year too, as the extra year will benefit the younger horses.”
Pammy Hutton – international grand prix rider, renowned dressage trainer and H&H columnist
“GERMANY was heading for the landslide in Tokyo, I think. But I much prefer the harmony and regularity that we see from riders like Britain’s Carl Hester, that I feel is lacking from some of the German performances. If the judges start rewarding this sort of riding again next year, I think Britain stands a really good chance of regaining supremacy in 2021.
“For Britain, I’d like to see Charlotte Dujardin ride her younger gelding Gio, and maybe Carl with En Vogue, whom he has recently taken over the ride on from Charlotte. Spencer Wilton’s top horse Super Nova II will be 18 next year, so might be too old, but we also have the likes of Gareth Hughes, Lottie Fry, Laura Tomlinson and Emile Faurie – and I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for a newbie, like Sonnar Murray-Brown with Erlentanz.
“The Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and the USA will be up there, and you can’t rule out Portugal and Spain, too. This extra year has opened up a lot of doors.”