INTERVIEW WITH A HURRICANE SCIENTIST

Dr Jordan J. Gerth, a physical scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), talks to us about using satellites for hurricane forecasting

How much has satellite technology changed hurricane forecasting?

It’s hard to imagine hurricane forecasting without the use of satellites. Satellites are a primary tool to track storms and monitor their intensity over the ocean. Without them our only indication would be buoys and ships, and there would still be a substantial number of storms that would be a surprise upon landfall, of great consequence to the people that live along the coasts.

How much does NOAA rely on satellite data?

Satellites are fundamental to NOAA’S mission and our ability to predict the weather. NOAA runs sophisticated computer models that use satellite data as a primary input for weather conditions around the world. Satellites provide over 90 per cent of the input to these. Without fully knowing global weather conditions, it’s difficult to make local predictions and warnings.

Are there ever times when satellites are suggesting one thing, but experience and instincts suggest otherwise? Satellites provide critical observations and meteorologists are trained to not look beyond the data. However, sometimes despite all of our advances in weather prediction, internal storm dynamics are difficult to immediately ascertain with the data that’s available. In those cases, the National Weather Service has to rely on rigorous training, expertise of colleagues and computer simulations to provide the best forecast.

Are there still technological advances on the horizon that could improve hurricane forecasting even further?

Yes! NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) after devastating hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, such as Katrina, to improve the accuracy, and therefore Americans’ confidence, in hurricane forecasts. Recently, HFIP is leading to the development of a Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve hurricane forecasts with advancements in computer models. NOAA is also planning future satellite missions that include enhanced capabilities for monitoring hurricanes and funding research projects to collect additional data with hurricane hunter aircraft.

Will it get easier or harder to predict hurricanes as the climate changes?

Climate change is unlikely to change the predictability of hurricanes, but it may lead to stronger hurricanes. Hurricanes typically increase in intensity under low wind shear around the storm and warm water temperatures. Under a changing climate, there’s evidence that water temperatures will be on the increase.