Death rate at new high in NHS crisis

THE death rate surged to a 40-year high following the NHS crisis last winter, official figures suggest.

Across England and Wales there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths, 45% higher than the previous year and the most since the winter of 1978/79.

Excess winter deaths in Yorkshire were up about 1,000 compared with the winter of 2016/17, which itself was more than 1,400 deaths higher than the year before that, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows.

The ONS figures reveal Yorkshire’s winter deaths were the highest since 1991/92 when local records began.

Meanwhile analysis of deaths across the seasons shows about a fifth more people died in winter than in summer in Kirklees in 2016/17.

The statistics come amid warnings from doctors that the NHS is heading towards a cliff edge as temperatures plunge and the busiest time of year approaches.

Last winter a paramedic told the Examiner that conditions for patients were the worst they had ever seen.

A junior doctor also revealed they feared killing someone amid the surge of patients last January.

Despite that, some medics have raised fears that the NHS is the least prepared its ever been.

Experts say winter is a “dangerous time” for elderly people, leading to persistent pressure on the NHS.

Dr Nick Scriven, a consultant in acute medicine for Calderdale and Huddersfield NHS Foundation Trust and current president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said: “This is an extremely large increase in the number of deaths over the winter period and raises concerns about the persistent winter problems we are now encountering across the NHS on an annual basis.

“In 2016, we coined the phrase ‘eternal winter’ as a result of sustained pressure throughout the year which, by the time winter actually hits, leaves hospitals struggling to cope, having been maxed-out all year round.

“We have an older, frailer population with increasingly complex medical problems, a lack of funding across health and social care to meet demand, a recruitment crisis and persistently poor performance.

“Although the influenza outbreak did cause deaths, it cannot be the single factor to explain this figure of more than 50,000 and a rise of approximately 15,000 compared to the year before.

“Ultimately, despite reassurances from the government and NHS leaders that enough funding has been made available and the service is coping with the additional demands placed on it, the reality is clearly different given these statistics.” Of the 3,910 excess winter deaths in Yorkshire, more than 90% were pensioners with about two thirds of those being very elderly, aged 85 or older. Every year, more people die in winter than in summer due to colder temperatures, respiratory diseases and outbreaks of flu. ONS data shows during the winter of 2016-17, the latest period figures are available, there were approximately 250 excess winter deaths in Kirklees. This meant a fifth more (21%) people died during winter in Kirklees, compared with Hospital wards have been under immense pressure, which is continuing, says Dr Nick Scriven, inset, president of the Society for Acute Medicine the yearly average.

Kirklees specific figures for last winter are not yet available.

Across England and Wales, the rate of excess winter deaths varies from as low as 4% to as high as 51%.

Health think tank, the King’s Fund, said it was concerned that this “could be the start of a trend of periodically high winter deaths”.

The Department of Health and Social Care said that the 2017-18 figures “were likely the result of a combination of flu and cold weather”.

A spokesman said: “We know flu is difficult to predict - that’s why this year we have a stronger vaccine for over-65s, and have made more vaccines available than ever before.”