Exposing the myth of ‘new boss bounce’

THE old story has it that the arrival of a new face in the dugout brings about the ‘new manager bounce’ – an immediate upturn in points after the difficult spell that got the previous gaffer the boot.

But is it really true? We’ve looked at a combination of last year’s mid-season Championship managerial changes and the last six bosses to take the Town hotseat – handily enough, all six of those managers arrived mid-season too.

And the numbers are underwhelming.

None of the new Championship faces last season managed a bounce of more than two points. Of the 12 managers we looked at in total, only Town’s Lee Clark managed to get two wins in his first three games – and that matched the record Town had enjoyed in their previous three matches under caretaker manager Gerry Murphy.

So Danny Cowley can feel somewhat reassured about getting off to a losing start against Sheffield Wednesday – in fact, David Wagner also started with a defeat against the same opposition.

It’s as though Cowley was bang on the money when he said process was more important than points at this stage.

Here’s those records in full – six Championship managers who came in during last season. This only includes the six managers who came in mid-season after the previous manager was sacked or left by mutual consent.

Previous three league games: W0 D1 L2 Game 1: Lost 1-0 v Millwall (a) Game 2: Drew 0-0 v QPR (a) Game 3: Lost 4-1 v Swansea City (h) Bounce effect: 0 points.

Previous three league games: W1 D1 L1 Game 1: Won 1-0 v Ipswich Town (a) Game 2: Drew 0-0 v Reading (h) Game 3: Drew 0-0 v Millwall (a) Bounce effect: +1 point.

Previous three league games: W0 D1 L2 Game 1: Lost 3-1 v Brentford (a) Game 2: Won 2-1 v Leeds United (h) Game 3: Lost 2-0 v Preston North End (h) Bounce effect: +2 points.

Previous three league games: W1 D0 L2Game 1: Lost 1-0 v Bristol City (h) Game 2: Won 3-1 v Wigan Athletic (h) Game 3: Lost 2-0 v Birmingham City (a) Bounce effect: 0 points.

Previous three league games: W0 D1 L2 Game 1: Lost 1-0 v Everton (h) Game 2: Lost 5-0 v Chelsea (a) Game 3: Lost 2-1 v Arsenal (a) Bounce effect: -1 point.

Previous three league games: W0 D1 L2 Game 1: Lost 3-1 v Sheff Wed (a) Game 2: Lost 2-0 v Middlesbrough (h) Game 3: Won 2-0 v Birmingham City (a) Bounce effect: +2 points.

Previous three league games: W1 D1 L1 Game 1: Lost 2-1 v Middlesbrough (h) Game 2: Drew 0-0 v Wigan (h) Game 3: Lost 3-0 v Leeds (a) Bounce effect: -3 points.

Previous three league games: W1 D1 L1 Game 1: Lost 6-1 v N Forest (a) Game 2: Drew 0-0 v Ipswich Town (h) Game 3: Won 1-0 v Burnley (a) Bounce effect: 0 points.

Previous three league games: W0 D2 L1 Game 1: Won 2-0 v Exeter City (h) Game 2: Drew 2-2 v Stevenage (a)Game 3: Drew 3-3 v Bury (a) Bounce effect: +3 points.

Previous three league games: W2 D0 L1 Game 1: Won 2-0 v Hereford United (h) Game 2: Lost 3-0 v Carlisle United (a) Game 3: Won 2-0 v Scunthorpe United (h) Bounce effect: 0 points.