Are we any closer to ending virus lockdown?
IT HAS been almost four weeks since parts of West Yorkshire were plunged into local lockdowns.
Since July 31, residents in Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale have had their lifestyles restricted as part of a desperate bid by the Government to reduce the rate in which coronavirus was spreading in those areas.
For some time now, the figures which show the number of cases and the rate of infection have been startling in those three geographical reasons.
Bradford, in particular, is the county’s coronavirus hotspot with more cases than anywhere else and, with that, more cause for concern.
Outbreaks at factories in Kirklees caused panic and likely contributed to the decision to place those areas under tighter restrictions, but that has not stopped people from complaining about the harsher rules.
Certain parts of those regions could soon escape the local lockdowns but, as of yet, those within the Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale boundaries must abide by the rules which have been set by the Government.
Although we cannot predict what will happen in the future, we can look at the past and, in particular, scientific data which tells us whether those areas were always doomed to be heading towards local lockdowns.
One of the key pieces of evidence used by Matt Hancock to determine which areas needed stricter regulation was the rate of infection.
These are based on tests carried out in laboratories (pillar one of the Government’s testing programme) and in the wider community (pillar two) with the rate expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.
In late June, all three areas had high infection rates, with Bradford’s particularly concerning, at 50.1 on June 29. However, the start of July saw the infection rate in Bradford drop dramatically and, for a two-day period, Kirklees was actually Yorkshire’s coronavirus hotspot.
Calderdale initially had the lowest rate out of the three, but late July saw the infection rate surge before it peaked at 45.9 on August 3.
This would have been just days into the three areas being placed under local lockdowns and the rest of the month paints a much more reassuring picture for all three areas.
Since the middle of August, Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale have all seen their infection rates drop and all are heading in a downward trajectory that we hope will continue when the latest rates are published sometime this week.
If you look at the trio on a map in the corner of West Yorkshire, you can see that Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale do have the county’s highest infection rates.
However, places like Leeds and Wakefield should be wary, as their infection rates are also higher than most other places in the county.
As well as the rates which show how quickly the virus is spreading, the bread and butter numbers which are easier to decipher are the rate of cases.
Every day, Public Health England reveals how many new cases each local authority in the country has recorded over the past 24 hours.
Yorkshire Live publishes these figures every single day and we have created a chart which tracks the number of new cases from July 3, with the exception of three days when Public Health England did not make this data available to us.
Looking at the locked-down areas of Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale, you can see that, for the former, the number of cases announced per day fluctuates dramatically. However, in spite of that, the city has nearly always recorded the highest number of new cases in the county.
The biggest single surge saw 103 new coronavirus infections confirmed on August 12 with 99 also recorded two days later on August 14. Kirklees’ biggest spike also came on August 12, with 54 new cases, while Calderdale’s most dramatic surge occurred on August 5, with 30 new cases.
All of which seems to correlate with the data for infection rates, with Bradford’s peaking on August 11 and Calderdale’s on August 3.