FOR THE TERRIERS
SQUAD A BIG PROBLEM
as an excuse since then. But it has had a measurable effect on Town’s fortunes.
That rule change was introduce 11 games into the season, and sure enough when you look at a rolling average of Town’s xGD per game (a decent measure of performance at both ends of the pitch), it hits its highest peak of the season on or around game 11. Those disinclined to put much stock in xG need only look at how Corberan has used his substitutions to see a divide in the experience levels the players who have come on as substitutes 1, 2 and 3, and those he has been able to call upon when he’s taken that to subs 4 or 5.
For a start, Corberan has generally not made full use of the ability to introduce fresh legs, using the full five substitutes available to him just 11 times of a possible 34 this season. For a while after his second string let him down so badly at Bournemouth, the Town boss stuck to making just two or three changes per game, indulging himself with a fourth substitution just once the nine league games between December 16 and January 30.
Young striker Kieran Phillips and emerging wide man Aaron Rowe aside, the players who have come on as Corberan’s first, second or third substitutes have at least had a fair amount of senior experience.
At least Alex Pritchard, Danny Ward, Isaac Mbenza, Fraizer Campbell, Yaya Sanogo, Duane Holmes and Juninho Bacuna are recognised senior players who are, in principle, capable of making a difference in attack.
Sure enough, when used from the bench, they have generally been among the first three players Corberan has reached out for.
Look at those who have often come on as substitutes four and five, and you have Jaden Brown, Scott High and Rarmani Edmonds-Green and Alex
Vallejo. The four had just 19 prior Championship appearances between them coming into this season, and while Vallejo is 29 year old, he joins the others in not exactly being what you would think of an impact substitute.
None of this gets Corberan or Town off the hook for their underachievement this season: that peak in xGD we talked about is still only +0.2 per game, suggesting that even at their best Town were as likely to lose as they were to win on any given day - hence the erratic nature of their early-season results.
It’s clear that even had the substitution rule change not come into effect, Town would still have struggled with their thin squad this season - as their continuing struggles even after the January transfer window made clear.
With several high-earning players expected to depart this summer, they must ensure they have much better squad depth in every position next season no matter how many subs they’re allowed to make.