Hull could be slow to ‘recover’ from Covid-19 lockdown
THINK TANK SAYS HULL ECONOMY MAY STRUGGLE
HULL’S economy will be one of the hardest hit by coronavirus and face the slowest recovery after the pandemic, research from a think tank suggests.
The Social Market Forum’s (SMF) research ranked Hull first out of ten English local authority areas facing severe economic disruption during the recovery following the pandemic.
The think tank ranked areas based on their existing unemployment levels and the speed of their economic recoveries following last recession after the 2008 financial crisis.
Amy Norman, a researcher at the SMF, said Hull workers could lose their jobs or have their hours cut as the economic effects of coronavirus start to bite.
The rate was about twice the ONS national average of 4 per cent as of February.
It comes as more businesses in Hull and across England began trading as normal following the easing of more coronavirus lockdown restrictions. It also comes ahead of a raft of new measures Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to unveil to boost the economy today.
The cross-party economics think tank’s report stated industries including banking, finance and construction would be among the hardest hit by coronavirus.
Research suggested London boroughs including Camden and the City of London, Lambeth, Tower Hamlets and Leicester would feel the knock-on effects in those industries the hardest.
But the report stated those areas would bounce back relatively quickly while Hull and others could be left behind.
Hull was followed by Bradford, Walsall, Manchester, Peterborough, Lambeth, Thurrock, Brent, Redbridge and Waltham Forest and Sandwell in the ranking.
Ms Norman said Hull’s unemployment rate meant it would face greater hardship compared to areas in the South East. The research covers forecasts up to 2023.
Ms Norman said: “Because Hull entered the crisis with such a high unemployment rate that means it will take longer for the city to recover. That’s based on how Hull fared after the last recession a decade ago, when it also had one of the highest unemployment rates going into that crisis. Hull took seven years to recover.
“Our analysis found one in five workers in Hull were employed in construction, finance, banking and insurance, the industries we expect will be hit hardest.
“But, overall, we think most Hull jobs could be at least be moderately impacted. So we’re expecting to see job losses and cuts to hours.
“There will be challenges as well as opportunities for Hull. Because there isn’t one particular sector that is going to be severely hit that means the risk is spread across the economy.
“But it also makes it harder to target policies so they can address the underlying problems.
“About a third of Hull workers are employed in the public sector, meaning the impact for them at least will be minimal”
Council finance portfolio holder Cllr Phil Webster said Hull was vulnerable to economic shocks because of the amount of people employed in low-wage jobs.
He added the government could help the city’s recovery after coronavirus by relaxing rules around planning and borrowing.
“Clearly it’s not looking good but we don’t know how far the economy will bounce back on its own.
“If you look at Hull’s unemployment rate leading up to this it was coming down and approaching the national average. The issue is that we’ve got a lot of people working in low-wage jobs.
“We do have an opportunity to create more skilled and sustainable jobs here like in the energy sector. But there are tweaks that could be made at a national level to do things quicker and help us create jobs locally.”
Cllr Mike Ross, Liberal Democrat opposition leader on the council, said Hull could become a “lost city” if recovery measures failed to address problems that existed before the pandemic.
Cllr Ross said: “This is a case of being at the top of the wrong table.
“I’ve always said the coronavirus crisis is multi-faceted and it’s going to have long lasting effects for months and years to come. The chancellor is going to have a real job on his hands in making sure places like Hull are not forgotten.”