‘Times are changed, we are also changed with them’ and more is on the way
WHEN the then Prime Minister Theresa May was forced into a policy u-turn in 2017, she insisted at a press conference that “nothing has changed”. It became one of the defining phrases of her time in office.
“Nothing has changed,” she repeated twice in a steely tone, when in fact everybody knew that the change was so significant that her hold on the leadership of the Tories was slipping away irrevocably.
Who was she trying to kid?
The vibe felt the same last Thursday as Unionists reacted to the publication of the Northern Ireland Census figures on identity, typified by DUP Assembly member Emma Little-pengelly insisting that everyone needed to calm down; there was nothing new, nothing to see here in effect.
Even in these more secular days, the headline in this part of the world tends to focus on religious affiliation, with the Census showing Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time in the history of Northern Ireland.
United Ireland?
Does last Thursday morning’s announcement mean that a united Ireland is suddenly imminent and far closer than it was last Wednesday? Well, no.
And was the confirmed fact of a Catholic majority a surprise? No, again.
But as expected and predicted as it was, the Census figures are no less symbolically significant. And they provide challenges for all sections of a much-changed society here.
Denial of change isn’t sustainable in the long term, because Northern Ireland is already a much-changed, pluralist place of three minorities now; whether that be Catholic, Protestant and neither. Or British, Irish, Northern Irish or other, or indeed Unionist, Nationalist and middle ground.
The key word is trend, and while this is a seminal moment in history, a snapshot in time, it’s clear from numerous indicators that the trend is not only irreversible it is gathering pace in the one direction.
Context is important. Northern Ireland was set up a hundred years ago when Protestants were in a majority of two to one, and generally Protestants were considered British and Catholics were Irish.
When I was growing up in the 1950s and 1960s, in Fermanagh the split was about 50-50. Approximately.
But our MPS from 1955 through to 1970 were from big-house Unionism, firstly Lord Grosvenor who became the Duke of Westminster and then the Marquis of Hamilton. For the remainder of the century, the Westminster seat alternated between Unionism and Nationalism or Republicanism.
County or District Councils mostly had a Unionist majority for the first half century of partition and there was a balance of power up until the Millennium, while across Northern Ireland political Unionism held sway.
The position has changed dramatically since the turn of the century; in this area three out of our five MLAS are from Sinn Fein, who also hold power on the new Fermanagh-omagh Council. While for the first time, Nationalism in the shape of Sinn Fein holds the most seats at Stormont, a place Republicans once wanted to overthrow.
Against this background, aspects of the Census merely confirm the trend. Northern Ireland is no longer administered by an entitled “Protestant parliament for a Protestant people”.
It’s a very different place now in so many ways, and denying that fact is foolhardy.
Many of the political interests will drill down into the figures, but there are some interesting headline pointers. On religion, nearly 46 per cent of the population are from a Catholic background and 43.5 per cent Protestant with the highestever figure of 17 per cent saying other or no religion. That figure was about five per cent 20 years ago.
The conventional wisdom is that the exponential increase in “no religion” is complemented by the increasing numbers of people who refer to their religious background but they are no longer practising.
There are changes to national identity too. More people than ever are identifying as Irish, up to 29 per cent, but it has been pointed out that this is short of the 46 per cent figure for Catholics.
Far fewer people than ever are identifying as British, down to 31 per cent from 40 per cent 10 years ago, and there are 21 per cent who say they are Northern Irish.
Don’t forget also that there is a significant increase in ‘new communities’ who have made their home here, now doubled in 10 years and four times more than in 2001.
Younger people
We must also recognise that much of the change in attitude and priorities is greater among younger people, so the trend will undoubtedly continue.
There’s no doubt that the major effect of all this will be unsettling for the Unionist community, whose days of hegemony in Northern Ireland are gone.
Many of their representatives are pointing up their interpretation of the figures to show they believe there isn’t a great desire for Irish unity, and that many people from a Catholic background are happy for Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom.
If they’re right, and Unionists now know they are in a minority and need the support of those Catholics to keep Northern Ireland in the UK, what are they doing to accommodate their neighbours’ Irish culture in a shared society?
At one level, there is the denial of Irish language and the continued disparaging of the GAA. While the recent protests over the Protocol saw establishment Unionism line up with the loyal orders and elements of loyalism. What message does that send out to those Catholics they believe are Unionist with a small u.
Furthermore, Unionism has failed miserably in its misjudgement of Brexit, aligning with English Nationalism. Disillusion with this must surely have been a factor in the reduction of people identifying as British, and one wonders what the appeal would be to a section of Protestants in a Border poll if constitutional change meant coming back into the EU fold. Or indeed, what appeal would there be for ‘soft’ Nationalists.
Unionism also needs to take heed of opinion in London; just last year former Chancellor George Osborne predicted that Northern Ireland is now on its way out of the Union as a result of Brexit and that most people in Britain “just don’t care”. And in the wake of last week’s Census results, Norman Tebbit now believes it is “more likely than not that the Province will become part of the Republic”.
Fairly or unfairly this all means that much of the onus as a result of changing demographics is on how Unionism will react to the acceleration of change.
The German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche said “the snake which cannot shed its skin must die” and Unionism needs to adapt and reinvent itself in the Northern Ireland of 2022; and to be clear this doesn’t mean abandoning their culture or principles but accepting their changing status.
All this said, there is also an onus on all sections to accommodate each other. As the conversation about constitutional change and what a ‘New Ireland’ means intensifies, those driving it still need to take steps to ensure that British and Unionist people retain their identity and feel valued on this island.
The death of the Queen revealed large sections had an affection to her personally, a comforting constant in most of their lives and there seemed to be a strong affiliation to the monarchy from many people. Their aspirations and identities need to be valued and respected as we move forward into an ever-moving era.
At the heart of it, people respecting each other’s beliefs and learning to make this a better place for everyone should be our motive.
The saying is ‘Times are changed, we also are changed with them’. Recognising that change means nobody should bury their head in the sand. The trend is clear, more change is on the way.
“Don’t forget also that there is a significant increase in ‘new communities’ who have made their home here
“Denial of change isn’t sustainable in the long term, because Northern Ireland is already a much-changed
editorial@impartialreporter.com