Local election drubbing would pose fiercest test of Sunak’s leadership
Rebels threaten to make move on Prime Minister should he oversee defeats in West Midlands and Teesside mayoralties
On his flight out to Poland this week to announce a major increase in defence spending, Rishi Sunak cut a relaxed figure. The famously sweettoothed Prime Minister handed out patriotic St George’s Day cupcakes as he chatted to journalists. He appears more at ease on an international stage that can offer welcome respite from the domestic pressure he is facing.
This week’s big reveal on defence was considered a political coup for Mr Sunak at home and abroad. It capped what has been seen as a successful week for No 10, coming hot on the heels of a speech on welfare policy and the long-awaited passing of the Rwanda Bill.
Senior Downing Street figures say that Mr Sunak is not dwelling on the constant stream of negative polling and is instead pouring his energy into focusing on the factors he can control.
But unlike St George, who found fame by slaying a single dragon, the Prime Minister must overcome several adversaries if he is to emerge victorious after the next general election. And his latest existential threat comes next week, when voters go to the polls in the local elections and he hits a new moment of maximum danger. Plotters within the Tory Party have earmarked Thursday as “May Day from Hell”, as they seek to use what is widely expected to be a drubbing at the ballot box as a fresh opportunity to oust Mr Sunak. While there are significant doubts about the seriousness of a challenge, there are also fears that a “bloodbath” at the local polls – one in which the Conservatives lose all of the mayoral elections, including their incumbents in the West Midlands and Tees Valley – could lead to an attempt to topple Mr Sunak in the coming weeks.
As one backbencher told i: “If the elections are a complete disaster and the mayoral ones are really bad, then [a leadership challenge] is not beyond the realms of possibility.” According to those close to the Prime Minister, he is primarily focused on the result of the mayoral election in Teesside, which he considers particularly important given the number of swing “Red Wall” seats in the region.
Sources said that he hopes that the level of investment the Government has poured in to the area, through policies such as levelling-up funding and the new freeport, could be enough to convince some 2019 Tory voters not to abandon the party.
But there is acknowledgment inside No 10 that the elections will be “particularly tough” – not least because they will be measured against the previous set of results, when the Conservatives enjoyed a boost from the roll-out of coronavirus vaccines.
In a sign of the level of concern about next week’s results, ministers were once again forced to circle the wagons around Mr Sunak, with the Home Secretary, James Cleverly, warning the rebels that a leadership race before the general election, however short, would be a “catastrophically bad idea”.
One Tory aide insisted that the sniping only backfires against the plotters. They said: “When Robert Jenrick goes out and criticises 14 years of Tory failures on immigration, he just alienates most of the Tory MPs he wants to support him in the next leadership election.”
A realistic outcome is that the Conservatives will hold on to Tees Valley, if not the West Midlands, and could come closer than expected in London, despite widespread misgivings about their candidate in the capital, Susan Hall.
Such a result would probably mean that Mr Sunak would be safe from any rebel plot, but would be unlikely to bring an end to calls for change from the Prime Minister in how he is approaching the general election.
“We need some personnel change to get into election mode and have everybody pushing in the same direction,” one MP said. In particular, some MPs want Mr Sunak to remove James Forsyth – his best friend and former best man – from his role as political secretary. They view him as aloof and blame him for repeated missteps in recent months. “He’s not perceived as being the best,” one MP said. Doubts about the Downing Street operation have led to calls for the Prime Minister to finally fire the starting gun on the general election campaign. Speculation has been swirling that Mr Sunak could set a date as soon as Monday, in an effort to put an end to the leadership challenge rumours and overshadow any local election difficulties.
One former minister believes that an autumn date would allow time for voters to see that “things are improving”. “I think we’ve started to see a real difference, materially,” the MP said. “In numbers, maybe not, but the perception of how things are going is a big deal. When we suddenly see cuts to interest rates, that’ll change things.”
But this is not a view widely shared. As one former Tory special adviser, who recently left to join the private sector, put it: “I don’t buy the interest rates stuff. I don’t know what we’re waiting for. And it’s not just the money in people’s pockets. You can’t get a doctor’s appointment. Schools are terrible. People can’t see it getting better.” Another Tory source was more blunt, saying: “It’s going to be wipeout territory. We’re f**ked. [Labour] are going to win. We’re just going to have to accept that.”
It’s not just the money in people’s pockets. You can’t see a doctor. Schools are terrible