‘We’re dropping like a stone’: why some Tories want a summer election

Conservatives are despondent after disastrous local elections and are sceptical of PM’s hung parliament claim

After the Conservatives suffered a drubbing at the local elections, Rishi Sunak did his best to put a brave face on it. He publicly declared that the results showed Britain on track for a hung parliament – despite polls suggesting Labour would easily win a Commons majority – and hammered home that same message in private meetings with MPs addressed by the Tories’ strategy chief, Isaac Levido.

It is partly based on a controversial projection published by two academic psephologists, that critics claim fails to account for the difference in voting patterns between local and general elections. Some Tory MPs are buying the spin. One minister said: “These are not the results of a party that is 20, 25 points ahead in the polls – so the question is, why are the polls wrong?”

Another MP said: “I think colleagues think it will be a hung parliament with Labour as largest party. They have always felt the doorstep response is no love for Labour, and Tories just not voting.” But the backbencher added that the Prime Minister was lucky not to face more formidable rivals either internally or across the dispatch box, saying: “Rishi and Starmer are both just dull and ineffective.” Colleagues would oust Mr Sunak as leader if they could replace him with David Cameron rather than current leadership frontrunners such as Penny Mordaunt, the MP said. “If they could have Cameron, they would dump Rishi in a heartbeat,” they said. “They don’t want Penny, which is why Rishi is still there.”

Others are far more sceptical of the hung parliament briefing. A former minister said: “I am not convinced that we have really gone from a 20-point Labour lead to a 7-point Labour lead, which would give Labour a minority government or hung parliament.

“The party is now resigned that Rishi will take us into the general election. The vast majority of Tory MPs do not expect him to deliver victory. Things are so bad we are walking towards defeat. The question now is how big will the defeat be?”

“Obviously we are going to lose,” a well-connected party source complained. “It’s too late, all the things that No 10 have been trying aren’t working any more.”

Another urged Mr Sunak to call the general election as soon as possible rather than waiting until the autumn, saying: “We keep dropping like a stone in the polls. It can always get worse. I think we’d be better off just limiting the damage and going now.”

YouGov, the high-profile polling firm which publishes a weekly survey of voters’ opinions, fuelled those fears this week with a poll showing the Tories a full 30 points behind Labour. It represents the Conservatives’ worst polling position since the Liz Truss era.

But party insiders are frustrated that the statistical techniques used by the company – founded by Nadhim Zahawi, who announced this week he will stand down as an MP – result in much larger Labour leads than most other pollsters. One senior Tory figure joked: “I’d love to know their methodology – it’s Nadhim’s revenge!”

On Wednesday, Sir Keir Starmer used Prime Minister’s Questions to try to pile the pressure on Mr Sunak by revealing that he had persuaded another Conservative MP to cross the floor – Dover’s Natalie Elphicke, previously seen as being on the right of the Tory party.

The Labour candidate for that seat, Mike Tapp, was given a heads-up that his rival was going to be welcomed into the party this week. But for the vast majority of existing MPs, including members of the Shadow Cabinet, the news was only revealed when Ms Elphicke slid on to the Labour benches in the Commons just before PMQs.

“It was such a shock,” one insider said – adding that the news hadn’t gone down well with everyone, with some privately questioning whether Sir Keir had made a miscalculation. Female members of the party expressed concern over comments she made defending her ex-husband, the former MP Charlie

Elphicke, when he was convicted of sexual assault.

“There is unhappiness among Labour MPs, including from those not on the left of the party,” one source said. Another said that it had reawakened the debate over the treatment of veteran leftist Diane Abbott, who has been suspended from Labour for over a year, and had exposed “double standards” in

If they could have Cameron, they would dump Rishi in a heartbeat

how Sir Keir was prepared to treat those on the left: “It is clear that he seems willing to give Elphicke a clean slate but not others.” A shadow minister said: “The joke doing the rounds at the moment is that for Diane Abbott to be allowed back in she would have to join the Tory party and then defect to us.” But the frontbencher also defended the decision to accept

Ms Elphicke, saying: “We’ve now got two Labour MPs in Kent... This is exactly where we need to be in these constituencies.”

Sir Keir appears to agree, inviting his newest MP to join him for a speech yesterday in which he laid out his proposed solution to the problem of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats, despite the internal backlash. Tories were

Reporting by Hugo Gye, Richard Vaughan, Jane Merrick and Chloe Chaplain