PM rules out May general election as he faces threat of party rebellion Conservatives Coup threat set to ‘paralyse’ Sunak
Popular figure faces fight to retain her seat first, reports Arj Singh
Rishi Sunak has ruled out holding a general election in early May as he fights for his future in the wake of setbacks which have angered Conservative MPs.
Tory rebels have been emboldened by rows over the defection of Lee Anderson to Reform UK and criticism of the Prime Minister for refusing to return £10m donated by a businessman who allegedly made racist comments about Diane Abbott.
Asked whether he was still considering going to the polls on 2 May, the same day as local elections across much of the UK, Mr Sunak told ITV West Country: “There won’t be a general election on that day.”
Any other date in May is considered extremely unlikely because of the logistical difficulty in local authorities organising two sets of elections
The Prime Minister and his inner circle are likely to be “paralysed” by internal Conservative party turmoil about his leadership, a former No 10 adviser has said.
Veterans of Downing Street crisis management said it was likely that Mr Sunak and his team of advisers would find it difficult to get on with the job of governing owing to the distractions of a “febrile” parliamentary party.
And they suggested that he should stay in the UK because coups traditionally take place when a prime minister is abroad – as happened when Margaret Thatcher (inset) visited Paris during the challenge to her leadership in November 1990. within a few weeks. Holding an early election had been floated as one way for the Prime Minister to stop rebellious MPs from seeking to replace him with a new leader.
A source involved in the efforts to remove Mr Sunak which have been ongoing since late last year told i: “There has been a definite vibe shift this week. MPs have gone from being just resigned, totally vacant, quitting, to being actively angry.”
The source claimed that letters of no confidence in the leader were submitted by some MPs on Monday after Mr Anderson, the former party deputy chairman who had the whip suspended over comments about London Mayor Sadiq Khan, announced that he was joining Reform.
A No 10 insider said Mr Sunak was planning a “policy blitz” to emphasise the Government’s plans on crime, immigration and the economy
Boris Johnson was at a Nato summit in Madrid in June 2022 when his deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher, was accused of groping two men at the Carlton Club.
One former No 10 adviser said: “You cannot leave the country in case something happens when you are abroad. “People in No 10 will be a little bit anxious when the party situation is so febrile.”
The former aide also pointed to the difficulties in getting work done: “There is less time to deal with major issues if you keep having to have meetings about personnel issues. You’re unable to do anything because you are paralysed.” Jane Merrick in the coming days – which will see the Safety of Rwanda Bill return to the House of Commons after its passage through the Lords.
This plan could show Sunak attempting to prove he still has control of rebellious MPs and has ideas to revive the Tories in opinion polling.
The insider said: “The thing we can control is talking to people about the things that really matter to them – like the economy, like immigration. This Government actually has a really good story to tell on crime rates since 2010 – and things are better in places we control than Labourcontrolled areas like London.”
The Prime Minister insisted his party was not divided, adding: “I think actually the party is united in wanting to make sure that we don’t have the Labour government.
“We’ve been through a difficult couple of years, whether it’s with Covid, recovering from that, the impact of the war in Ukraine. But the start of this year, we really have turned a corner and we’re now pointing in the right direction.”
Sir Keir Starmer demanded a general election as soon as possible, saying: “Call it. Have the backbone to call it.”
Mr Sunak has resisted pressure to give up more than £10m of donations from Frank Hester, despite increasing anger from within his own party. It is unclear if this anger is likely to lead to more letters of no confidence.
Yesterday, Sir Brandon Lewis became the latest in a string of senior Conservatives to announce that they are stepping down from Parliament at the next general election.
Conservative moderates have long feared that election defeat will mean the party lurching further to the right. Rishi Sunak’s refusal to give up on the Rwanda deportation scheme, his hiring of Lee Anderson – now departed to Reform UK – as deputy chair, and his refusal to rule out Nigel Farage rejoining the party have contributed to a growing sense among centrists that the party has moved further towards the extremes post-Brexit.
The emergence of Kemi Badenoch as the clear front runner to be the next leader, alongside the likes of Suella Braverman and Priti Patel, has only compounded fears that if the Prime Minister loses the next election, there will be a rightwing takeover.
But moderates have in recent months begun to organise, with the One Nation Conservatives grouping now a far more co-ordinated and vocal faction than it has been in the past, as it prepares for the battle to come.
Polls are suggesting that these more centrist voices could hold the balance of power in the party after a Tory election wipeout. But the MPs recognise they need to rally round a candidate quickly as right-wingers are already said to be plotting.
Despite her defeats in the last two leadership elections, Penny Mordaunt is emerging as their best option.
The Commons Leader has long been a popular figure in the party and had decent runs for leader in both 2022 contests, finishing third to Liz Truss in summer and second to Rishi Sunak in autumn.
She drew on support from across the party – from centrists such as Alicia Kearns and Caroline Nokes, while Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom ran her campaign, and she had the backing of mavericks such as David Davis and Bob Seely, who are seen to be on the right.
But with Tom Tugendhat and Rishi Sunak picking up the support of many more traditional centrists, Ms Mordaunt could not really have been described then as the “moderate” candidate.
However, after being burnt by Liz Truss’s win over Mr Sunak, that could be about to change as moderates increasingly see the importance of rallying around a candidate who can win the first stage vote among MPs as well as win over right-wing grassroots party members and secure victory in the all-important second stage vote that will decide a leadership contest.
Discussing fears of a right-wing takeover, one moderate minister said “the key will be coalescing around the right candidate” after an election defeat.
Ms Mordaunt is becoming increasingly attractive to centrists, the minister said, because they think she has a “broader appeal in the grassroots” that could allow her to defeat even a right-winger like Ms Badenoch in the final round. Tory sources say the Commons Leader has been hammering the so-called “rubber chicken” circuit of association dinners as well as having drinks with MPs, in what is seen as manoeuvring.
“She’s out at every chicken dinner going in constituencies, she’s got donors easily, she’s hosting drinks for MPs all the time,” one said.
i understands, however, that Ms Mordaunt sees meeting candidates and MPs as a normal part of her job, which is more heavily based in Parliament than other members, and that she is focused on delivering election victory for the Tories.
She also believes she is right wing on key issues and that this is being overlooked when she is compared with the likes of Ms Badenoch and Ms Braverman who are further along the spectrum.
But while Ms Mordaunt may want to be a unity candidate, some warn against trying to be all things to all people. “There are questions as to whether the left of the party will actually want to unify around her,” an insider said.
“If she plays both sides of the party too much, she might end up alienating one of them – it is a very tough tightrope to walk.”
The insider also highlighted perhaps Ms Mordaunt’s biggest challenge – retaining her Portsmouth North seat in the face of a potential Labour onslaught in the general election.
“Penny is a very strong, popular candidate who would be a solid choice for the party’s next leader,” the insider said. “As Leader of the House, she has proved to be a shrewd communicator, which the party might need to take the fight to Labour. But there are a lot of questions and hurdles she needs to jump through – ‘can she win her seat?’ is the most pressing.”
If Mordaunt plays both sides of the party too much she might alienate a side – it’s a tough tightrope to walk