RAF’s display of power paves the way for peace
The world had good reason to be thankful for the RAF this weekend – not for the first time. British jets took to the skies over Iraq and Syria in what has become a traditional role for the air force: defending the citizens of a democracy from bombardment and assault by a malign dictatorship.
Those pilots were one element of a co-ordinated defence involving American, Jordanian and Israeli action (inset, an Israeli F-15 Eagle) to knock down the vast majority of the hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones Iran and its wholly owned terrorist groups in the region fired at Israel on Saturday night.
While the extremists, ideologues and Iranian proxies in the West who have cheered on Houthi attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks may lament such action, Lord Cameron was right, in his media round yesterday, to cite this collaborative defensive effort as a positive development.
With hundreds of missiles and drones flying, and one major Middle Eastern power unashamedly and directly launching such an assault against another from its own territory, what positivity can possibly be found amid the crisis?
First, this military action offers the rare opportunity of serving a de-escalatory purpose – if the opportunity is capitalised upon successfully. As Lord Cameron argued yesterday, the combined effort against Iran’s armada of “110 ballistic missiles, 36 cruise missiles [and] 185 drones” worked in its most urgent purpose, blunting Iran’s attack by preventing almost all of those weapons from reaching their intended target.
Just as importantly, the fact that the capacity of Iran to reach out across the Middle East and kill people with impunity was found wanting is an indisputably positive thing. It reduces Tehran’s ability to intimidate and threaten, but it will also deter it from trying the same thing again.
The success of the defensive effort is the first element of what the Foreign Secretary refers to as the “double defeat” Iran has suffered.
The second defeat is in the war of propaganda and global public opinion.
Anyone following the facts on the ground knows that Iran – and particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – is the hand controlling, funding and arming Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iran barely veils this fact itself when it threatens Hezbollah rockets or Hamas assaults in the service of its interests.
That is why the Israelis, entirely legitimately, killed one of the senior IRGC officers responsible for co-ordinating terrorist violence against their citizens. Nevertheless, for purposes of propaganda, lawfare and diplomacy, Iran normally keeps up the pretence that it is not responsible for these actions. By openly launching this assault directly against Israel, from its own territory, the Islamic Republic has dropped even that excuse. Lord Cameron is focusing on that as a strategic Iranian error, by exposing itself as an indisputably “malign influence”. He implicitly suggests that the weekend’s attack could present Israel an opportunity to reset some of the international debate about the current war, depending on how it chooses to respond. Refusing to escalate further and instead “taking the win” is – he argues – the stronger, tougher thing to do.
In so doing, he is adapting his message in accordance with what he hopes will best appeal to the Netanyahu government.
It may be that the Israeli government has no interest in shepherding international opinion. But if Benjamin Netanyahu does feel the need to bring his allies with him, then Lord Cameron’s is probably the message that stands the best chance of being heard.
The UK can no more prevent Israel from defending itself than it can prevent Iran from continuing its attempts to export terrorism.
Lord Cameron’s careful balancing act is aimed at bolstering those defences and deterring that aggression. Projecting targeted military power, as the RAF did at the weekend, is the essential first step that gives everything else a chance.
Lord Cameron was right to cite the joint defensive effort as a positive development