US aid to Ukraine will not end war

After an agonising delay, Ukraine’s beleaguered forces will finally get a $61bn (£49bn) aid package from the US. Mark Warner (inset), the Senate Intelligence Committee chairperson, said on CBS News on Sunday that US military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, would be on its way to Ukraine “by the end of the week” if, as expected, the Senate passes the bill today.

However, Christopher Tuck, a reader in Strategic Studies at King’s College London, said: “The release of this next tranche of US aid for Ukraine will certainly help matters, but it will not suddenly transform the battlefield situation in Ukraine’s favour: no single initiative, whether it’s F-16s or the confiscation of Russian savings, will do that.

“Moscow’s forces have not been idle while partisan disputes in the US Congress delayed military support for months on end.

“Russia has been able to mobilise its war economy and manpower such that it now has sufficient material capabilities to conduct attacks along multiple axes, stretching Ukrainian forces and making it more difficult for Ukraine to generate the reserves necessary to recommence offensive operations,” he added.

By transforming Russia into a war economy, importing key parts and materials from Iran, China and North Korea, and pushing large numbers of poorly trained young men on to the front line as cannon-fodder, the Putin regime has defied predictions that its invasion would peter out. Instead it has started to retake ground.

US aid cannot come a moment too soon, with Ukraine’s outgunned forces fast running out of munitions. Last week, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the Russian invaders were firing 10 times as many shells as Ukraine’s forces and had at their disposal 30 times more aircraft.

The US military aid to be delivered in coming weeks will probably include more Patriot missiles to defend the country’s power plants and other key structures. Portable air defence systems, including the American Stinger system, could assist troops along the front line, where Russian jets have stepped up attacks on Ukrainian positions .

In April, Ukraine’s commanderin-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, said his country’s position had “significantly worsened” after Russian forces stepped up attacks along several points on the 1,000km front line since capturing the industrial city of Avdiivka in February. Crucially, it’s hoped that the arrival of the long-delayed $61bn package will thwart Russia’s plans for a massive early-summer offensive, aimed at changing the course of the conflict.

Tuck notes that while Russia is making gains, it is still suffering heavy casualties, even in circumstances where it has a significant tactical fire superiority.

“A new infusion of US munitions might be able to challenge that fire superiority, limit Russian gains, and inflict unsustainable casualties on Russian forces,” he said.