Weaponry from the West poses threat to targets inside Russia
Ukraine is likely to increase its attacks inside Russia after a surge in Western military aid, analysts say.
The US government has said that it will supply more MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (Atacms), which have a range of 300km (185 miles), after an aid package finally cleared both houses of Congress this week following months of delays.
Western nations have previously held back long-range weapons amid fears that they could be used to attack inside Russia, potentially triggering an escalation of the conflict.
Dr Martin Smith, a senior lecturer at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst, said that such donations would “enhance a key component of Ukraine’s emerging strategy of active defence”. He noted that Kyiv’s plan to launch strikes inside Russia was “deliberately shrouded in secrecy and ambiguity… to maximise its psychological impact”.
Ukraine’s allies hope the new supplies will help to reverse territorial losses while Kyiv was forced to ration ammunition, with another Russian offensive expected this summer.
Dr Smith said the US and the UK expected the weapons mainly to be used to “attack and disrupt the Russian army in occupied Ukraine by having the capability to strike communication, logistic and reinforcement facilities far from the front lines”. He said Ukraine’s attempt to take the war into Russia was likely to continue but would be “prosecuted mainly via local sabotage and drone strikes” because the new missiles are “valuable and expensive”.
Kyiv has previously carried out high-profile attacks inside Russia, targeting production facilities and energy infrastructure.
The UK donated Storm Shadow missiles last year, which have been used to attack Russian military targets in Crimea, following reassurances from Ukraine that they would not be used in attacks on Russian territory.
Last year, the defence secretary at the time, Ben Wallace, said that the missiles would “allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based on Ukrainian sovereign territory”.
President Joe Biden has directed his White House team to ensure that the new longer-range Atacms was “for use inside Ukrainian sovereign territory”. But in an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday, the Chief of the Defence Staff in the UK, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, did not express concern about Ukrainian attacks in Russia.
“As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long-range fight … its ability to continue deep operations will become a feature” of the war, he said.