The power is in your hands - don’t waste it

Once again the race to be Canterbury and Whitstable’s next MP is set to go down to the wire. In such an unpredictable contest, the only safe prediction you can make is that the margin separating Labour and the Conservatives will be incredibly slim, whoever comes out on top. Even the bookies are now offering exactly the same odds for a Rosie Duffield or Anna Firth victory.

Two sets of analysis published over the past seven days have underlined just how close it’s going to be.

Firstly, Yougov released its MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) modelling. The pollster puts the Labour candidate on course to win 47% of the vote, ahead of her Tory rival on 43%. Yougov used the same model to predict Ms Duffield’s shock victory two years ago.

Then on Tuesday a pro-remain group published research suggesting the Canterbury contest will be decided by just 415 votes. They also produced a “Voter Power Index”, which claims city residents will have 27 times more influence on the result than those in other seats.

Both candidates say the only poll that matters is on December 12. And, of course, they are absolutely right. All these surveys need to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But what’s not in doubt is that in Canterbury and Whitstable every vote really does matter. In 2017, Labour won by just 187 votes. In no other Kent seat will it be anywhere near as close.

So, if you want to influence the result of this election, make sure you go out and vote next week. It really will make a difference.