Thousands given boosters as Covid cases hit record level

Infection rates soar as Omicron takes hold - but hospital surge not yet seen

About 20,000 boosters have been delivered across the district in just 11 days as staff work around the clock to meet the government’s ambitious target.

With Omicron causing Covid rates to soar to record levels in Canterbury and across the country, Downing Street is pinning its hopes on third vaccine doses keeping people out of hospital.

Here we look at the current situation in the district…..

Do we have a lot of Covid cases locally?

Unfortunately the numbers have never been higher.

In the week up to December 16 there were 1,340 new cases across Canterbury, Herne Bay and Whitstable - up a staggering 40% on the week.

Early figures show this number continued to rise in the days that followed.

Particular hotspots are in Sturry, Fordwich, Thanington and Chartham, although rates are high across the district.

How does Canterbury compare to other areas?

On December 16 its infection rate was 804 cases per 100,000 people - below the Kent average of 874, but above the national rate of 778.

Areas to the west of the county have been hit hardest, with Dartford’s rate of 1,255 among the highest in the UK. Thanet has Kent’s lowest, at 630.

What is causing the high rates?

It’s almost certainly the increased prevalence of the new Omicron variant, but analysis of the current situation is made difficult by a frustrating 10-day delay in the government sharing complete figures for local authorities.

Every Friday (not ideal for a newspaper which publishes on a Thursday) it releases data which gives us:

1) Incomplete Omicron figures for the most recent week

2) Complete Omicron figures for the week before that

So on Friday (Dec 17) we found out, in the complete data, that there were 121 confirmed or probable Omicron cases in Canterbury in the week up to December 6.

This number had only been 10 - for the same week - when the early figures were released the Friday before.

Which makes the most recent incomplete data concerning to read, as early numbers for the week to December 13 show 70 confirmed or probable Omicron cases in Canterbury - 10 times higher than the same dataset the week before.

So is Omicron now the dominant variant in Canterbury?

It’s difficult to say with any certainty, but it’s likely.

In the week to December 6 Omicron cases made up 12% of all those recorded in the district.

The early numbers then suggest a huge spike in cases of the variant in the following week, which still only takes us up to December 13 - 10 days ago.

In the week to December 16 total cases rose by 40% in the district, indicating the more transmissable strain had started to really take hold.

Total case numbers have since continued to rise.

Has it caused a spike in Covid hospital patients?

As yet, not at all.

In fact, the number of people with the virus in East Kent has stayed the same for the last two weeks.

On Tuesday, there were 53 Covid patients across the Trust’s sites - which include the Kent & Canterbury, QEQM in Margate, and Ashford’s William Harvey.

On the same day last year there were 353.

So it’s not causing more hospitalisations?

Not yet, but there is typically a lag period - said to be about 7-10 days - between people testing positive and ending up in hospital.

So, with rates rising, you would expect there to be an increase in hospitalisations a week or so after.

But cases have been on the up since the start of November and there has still yet to be a significant increase in Covid patients in east Kent.

Any spike is likely to be seen after Christmas and into January, but health chiefs will be hoping the booster roll-out keeps numbers down.

There is also the impact of staff shortages to consider, with hospital employees forced to isolate if they test positive for the virus.

Does Omicron cause a milder illness than Delta?

The UK Health Security Agency is due to publish its early realworld data on the severity of the disease before Christmas, and is expected to offer a mixed outlook.

Journalists from Politico say they have seen the report, which they say concludes that people who fall sick with Omicron are less likely to become severely ill than those with Delta.

It says the UKHSA has also confirmed that transmissibility of Omicron is very high, meaning that even though it is milder, infections could rocket to the point large numbers still end up in hospital.

The UKHSA is also expected to conclude that while two doses of a vaccine are not enough to offer strong protection, a booster dose does significantly reduce the chance of ending up in hospital.

How many people have had their booster jab since Boris set his December 31 target?

Again, a lag in reporting figures means exact numbers are not available, but a reasonable estimate would be about 20,000.

Data shows there had been 14,780 third jabs delivered across the district between December 12 and December 20, with clinics collectively administering about 2,000 a day.

As of Monday, 50.5% of over12s across Canterbury, Herne Bay and Whitstable had been given their booster - almost 80,000 in total.

While Covid rates have risen sharply across the district, there has yet to be a significant increase in hospital patients