Map highlights risk hotspots

OF ANY SECOND WAVE LOW IN CITY

A MAP released by Oxford University identifies potential coronavirus hotspots.

The map outlines at-risk regions based on the number of vulnerable people and available hospital resources to handle outbreaks.

It suggests Leicestershire would have one of the lowest risks of hospitalisation in the country if a second wave breaks out.

The data can be broken down into regions, counties and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs).

It suggests the city would cope best if a second wave broke out, with 5.9 per 1,000 people needing general hospitalisation care and 1.7 per 1,000 needing acute hospital care.

East Leicestershire would be expected to have a higher level of hospitalisation – 8.7 people per 1,000. For Rutland, the figure is 9.4 per 1,000.

Researchers estimated “pressure points”, where demand for health services is likely to outstrip local supply.

The figures also took in to account data on population age, ethnicity, density and social deprivation.

Rural areas of Wales and the north east and south west of England were identified as areas of concern, where expected hospitalisation rates are high, bed capacity is relatively low and alternative hospital services are harder to reach.

London and other inner city areas, including Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester, are highlighted as areas with both deprivation and a high population density, so are at potentially higher risk for additional outbreaks.

Melinda Mills, the author of the paper and Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science director, told Mail Online: “Thinking not only regionally but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks.”

She said this is needed “when a lack of track and trace is in place”.

Demonstrating its potential, the researchers used the tool to show that Harrow, north-west London, was one area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospital admissions due to Covid-19.

“By using our online tool, policymakers would immediately have identified Harrow as a potential hotspot of hospital demand,” said author and sociologist Mark Verhagen.

“Ensuring local decision-makers have this type of fine-grained information available was a key goal of this study.”

The map can be seen at: