1.3c increase in October temperatures since 1990s
OCTOBER continued the recent pattern of being very mild but very wet!
Afternoon temperatures averaged 15.1c at both Mountsorrel and at Dean Whitakers station in Hinckley.
These figures represent temperatures 1c above normal for the time of year. Night time temperatures were even milder averaging 9c more than 1.5c above normal.
The overall mean temperature was logged at 12.1C making this the warmest October since 2017 in Leicestershire.
Very mild SW winds blew for most of the month and there was not any really cold weather to speak of. The warmest day registered 19c on the 7th with the coolest night only falling to 4.8c on the 21st and as is now common in October once again there was no frost at all.
These warm and moist SW winds often blew in from sub-tropical locations hence the warmth but they also produced high rainfall totals with high winds too.
Rain fell on 16 days in the month mainly in the first week and the final 10 days with a mainly drier spell sandwiched in between.
The month was wettest in Hinckley where 137.4mm of rain fell this is more than twice the usual total. In Mountsorrel I recorded 104mm more than 50% above my usual figure whereas Dave Mutton at Cosby recorded 107mm again more that 50% above the usual October average.
The wettest day was the 5th where 37mm fell in a single day. Strong winds also were in evidence on the day with Dean recording a maximum gust of 42mph and in nearby Coventry a small Tornado damaged streets in the Walsgrave area.
As a result of the cloudy and humid air masses sunshine totals were lower than usual with Dave in Cosby recording 100 hours for the month about 10 hours below the normal figure.
October is following a similar pattern to September since the millennium in regards to warmth but October appears to be getting wetter too whereas September is getting drier.
Steve Jackson who runs the Bablake MET station in Coventry has made the following observations about recent October weather at his station. He calculated that since the turn of the millennium there has been an increase of 1.3c in October’s temperature compared to the 1990s. The 2001 to 2020 average was 11.4c compared to 10.1c in the period 1991 to 2000. That is a huge increase in a short time period. Looking at the 350-year temperature record we have for the Midlands we find that virtually all our warmest Octobers have occurred since the year 2000 with our warmest registering an average of 13.7c in 2001.
All of our coldest October temperatures were recorded before 1919 more than 100 years ago! Of all the months of the year September and October have shown the most warming since the millennium and this is why we now have to mow our lawns much later in the season than we used to. Whether this is a permanent change is too early to tell because 20 years is only a very small time period in weather terms but it certainly fits the picture of a gradually warming world.
Not all months however fit this trend with August in particular being comparatively cool for many years in the same period in the UK but worldwide rends continue to show an increase in every months temperature since the millennium. Steve also calculated that at 127mm of rain for his station only 10 Octobers have been wetter since 1870.
The lack of sunshine this October has also been apparent recently with only 6 Octobers since the year 2000 giving us more sunshine than normal. Lets hope for a bit of November sunshine soon!
Many thanks again to Steve Jackson, Dave Mutton and Dean Whittaker for use of their invaluable data. Have a lovely weekend all!