Leader sur­vey shows boost to GM econ­omy

Manchester Evening News - - BUSINESS - By SHELINA BEGUM SHELINA BEGUM [email protected] @She­li­naBegum_

THE out­look for Greater Manch­ester’s econ­omy has im­proved – but only marginally – ac­cord­ing to a sur­vey.

This quar­ter’s eco­nomic sur­vey car­ried out by Greater Manch­ester Cham­ber of Com­merce is the first ever to co­in­cide with a gen­eral elec­tion cam­paign and showed a mar­ginal im­prove­ment in Q4.

Subrah­ma­niam Kr­ish­nan-Har­i­hara, head of re­search said: “This quar­ter’s field­work was held mostly in Novem­ber and the gen­eral elec­tion was an­nounced im­me­di­ately af­ter the sur­vey opened.

“The results give a start­ing point and very clear steer for the new gov­ern­ment and where it should start to fo­cus its at­ten­tion in mak­ing up for lost time over the last three years of hes­i­tancy and un­cer­tainty.

“Un­der­stand­ably, po­lit­i­cal de­vel­op­ments would cer­tainly have had some in­flu­ence in how busi­ness lead­ers re­sponded to the sur­vey.

“The GM In­dex, which com­bines seven key in­di­ca­tors taken from the QES, is now at 13.1. This is a slight im­prove­ment from Q3, when the GM In­dex was at 12.1, which was the low­est level since Q3 2012.

“It could be ar­gued that the im­prove­ment from 12.1 to 13.1 is mar­ginal – even within the mar­gin of er­ror – but there has been an im­prove­ment in some QES mea­sures.”

This quar­ter’s results show sta­bil­ity af­ter sev­eral quar­ters of volatil­ity.

The GM In­dex was at very high lev­els in 2018, dropped sharply in Q1 2019 (19.6), bounced back and then went down again. It has now sta­bilised.

On quar­terly UK sales, man­u­fac­tur­ing and ser­vices have both flat­lined while con­struc­tion has im­proved rel­a­tive to the pre­vi­ous quar­ter.

This quar­ter’s QES was spon­sored by Avoira. A full QES re­port will soon be avail­able.

Stephen McIntyre, chief mar­ket­ing of­fi­cer at Avoira, added:

“Re­gard­less of po­lit­i­cal views, the results of the gen­eral elec­tion of­fer a de­gree of cer­tainty.

“Busi­nesses like cer­tainty and I am hope­ful that Q1 2020 will be a lot more pos­i­tive and we can make progress to ex­pand busi­ness ac­tiv­ity.”

Greater Manch­ester’s econ­omy has im­proved

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