TOP GUN! Forget Bruno & Kane, llkay’s player of year
WHEN City needed a goal at Everton on Saturday night, they turned to Kevin de Bruyne from the bench to take them into the FA Cup semi-finals.
The Belgian had the desired effect, playing a crucial role in the Blues’ first goal, seven minutes from time, before scoring an impressive second as the clock ticked over 90 minutes.
It was the kind of performance, following his impressive showing against Borussia Monchengladbach, that served as a reminder of his brilliance, only two weeks since an underwhelming derby outing that saw some questions raised about fatigue.
Yet in both those games, City had another influential midfielder who proved the difference for the Blues against a stubborn defence.
At Goodison Park Ilkay Gundogan was in the right place to head the ball home after Aymeric Laporte’s shot from De Bruyne’s lay-off had been tipped onto the bar.
Days earlier, the German raced onto Phil Foden’s brilliant assist to put the tie beyond Gladbach and ensure City could simply manage the remaining 60 minutes of the contest how they wished.
They were Gundogan’s 15th and 16th goals of the season to extend his lead at the top of the City scoring charts. They also served to amplify the previously low-key calls for him to be considered in the Player of the Year conversation that will come around again in the coming weeks.
At one stage, De Bruyne looked favourite for the PFA award, voted for by players across the Premier
League. Then Ruben Dias came in and instantly improved the entire City defence. He would be a fair choice, just as Virgil Van Dijk was two seasons ago.
Across Manchester, Bruno Fernandes carried on this season where he left off in the last, with a goals and assist record that is beyond even City’s free-scoring attackers.
Harry Kane is scoring for fun as usual, and is adding assists to his game.
The Tottenham talisman leads the goals and assists chart in the league.
Fernandes is the bookmakers’ favourite for the PFA award, with Dias second and Kane third. Now, Gundogan has crept up to fourth in the running, ahead of De Bruyne.
On form, the Germany international could be the most likely of the three City candidates to win the award - especially if it’s voted for before the end of the season.
But how does his record stack up compared to his fellow contenders?
Firstly, it’s difficult to compare midfielders and attackers with Dias, so let’s start with the centre-back. Since joining, the Portuguese has played 41 times for City, helping keep an impressive 23 clean sheets. With just 15 goals conceded in that time, the Blues only let in a goal every 2.7 games, or 234 minutes, when he plays.
If Van Dijk won the PFA award for improving Liverpool’s defence when they finished second, Dias surely deserves recognition in helping City to what looks likely to be the title.
Now for the attackers, where Fernandes and Kane lead the way. The United man has a ridiculous 23 goals and 13 assists in all competitions, contributing a goal or assist every 1.25 games, or every 96 minutes. Kane’s contributions are even better, with 27 goals and 16 assists from 40 outings - an involvement every 0.9 games or 73 minutes.
If every win, including cups, is worth three points, and a draw worth one, United would be 22 points worse off without Fernandes’ goals or assists. Spurs would be 24 points worse off without Kane’s involvements.
On numbers alone, Gundogan, De Bruyne or Dias shouldn’t come close.
Luckily for them, football games aren’t won by calculators. Gundogan’s career-best 16 goals and three assists sees him contribute a goal every 1.7 games, or 133 minutes. Slightly better than
Gundogan is arguably more versatile, more consistent and more reliable than Fernandes or De Bruyne
that is De Bruyne’s seven goals and 16 assists from 31 games - an involvement every 1.3 games or 100 minutes.
So why should Gundogan, whose goals and assists have only gained City the equivalent of four points directly, be considered in the same bracket? Even De Bruyne has played a part in 15 points the Blues wouldn’t have had without him.
For one, Fernandes and Kane are undoubtedly the key men in their teams, with United and Spurs suffering notably when they are absent. They are the favourites because they make their teams tick, and produce when it matters.
City’s equivalent is arguably De Bruyne, so it strengthens Gundogan’s case that he stepped up when the Belgian has been missing this season.
A deeper look into Gundogan’s goals show that he might not score as often, but his goals are important ones at critical moments.
Of his 19 goals or assists, nine (47 per cent) were equalisers or goals to put City ahead. A further six (31 per cent) gave City a two-goal advantage to end any chances of an opposition comeback. That’s 78 per cent of his goal involvements with positive, meaningful contributions to valuable points and cup progressions.
So while Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling and De Bruyne have better goal involvement per minute ratios, Gundogan has arguably been the one driving City’s incredible form, especially through the tough moments.
The nature of the Blues squad means everyone is on hand to contribute, and the goals are shared out fairly evenly. Sometimes, the scorer or assister has done the easy part, with the player taking the ball from midfield to attack doing the hard work. For a player who has spent most of his City career in defensive or central midfield, using his experience to guard against the counter rather than get forward himself, Gundogan has finally been allowed to shine in front of goal.
Before joining City, he averaged a goal or assist every 4.5 games for Borussia Dortmund. In his first four years at the Etihad, that increased slightly to every 3.7 games. This season, as mentioned, it’s every 1.7 games.
At the same time he’s managed to maintain his class in possession, positioning and develop into an all-round midfielder. He’s arguably more versatile, more consistent and more reliable than Fernandes or even De Bruyne.
So while those names might well get the glory at the end of the season, it would make a nice change if someone like Gundogan was to get the recognition - a player who’s been consistent for years but is only now getting the plaudits for it.
Still, if you offered him a team trophy or two rather than individual accolades, you sense he’d be more than happy to stay under the radar for another season.