Chamber highlights ‘significant’ weakening of economy
AN INFLUeNTIAL business survey has shown a ‘significant’ weakening in the Greater Manchester economy over the last three months.
The headline GM Index of business health, from Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, fell from 19.3 at the end of 2022 to just 3.7 now – its lowest for more than two years.
The index was part of the latest Quarterly economic Review from Greater Manchester Chamber, which was presented at the Chamber’s Deansgate head office this week.
Subrahmaniam Krishnan-harihara, deputy director for research and information systems at GM Chamber, said the picture across Greater Manchester and the UK remained mixed. Inflation is coming down, but broader uncertainties over policy direction remain.
Announcing the index results to a roomful of business leaders, he said: “That is a significant drop and it is reflective of the uncertainty we have.”
The QeR results showed GDP was broadly flat, growing just 0.1 per cent in 2023 and rising just 0.2pc in January.
Consumer confidence was in negative territory, though it had improved on a year ago.
Of the PMI indices – which measure economic activity, with any figure over 50 representing growth - two were in negative territory. Construction stood at 49.7, with manufacturing at 47.5. Services stood at 53.8.
All three sectors saw domestic demand fall over the period, while export sales and orders for manufacturing and services remained in negative territory despite some uplift for manufacturers. All three sectors also saw dips in confidence over the period.
At the end of the session, Mr Krishnan-harihara was asked what he thought the index might look like in three months’ time.
he hoped the index would rise, saying: “I expect it will touch double digits in the next quarter.”
The meeting also heard from Keri Barton, sales and marketing director at Manchester-based freight forwarding specialist WTA, who explained how issues in the Red Sea are affecting businesses in Manchester and across the UK.