History points to another title for Blues
THERE is a certain sense of deja vu ahead of Sunday’s title race showdown at the Etihad, a feeling that City will remember fondly and one that will sow seeds of doubt in the minds of the Arsenal players.
It is 11 months since the Gunners arrived in Manchester top of the table and looking to end a long wait for a title. It was a couple of games later in the season than now but their advantage was four points, although the Blues had a game in hand. By the end of a chastening 90 minutes and a 4-1 City win, it felt like the title race was over.
Leaving the Etihad that night, the championship was still in Arsenal’s hands but nobody believed they were going to win it. The damage inflicted had been too great. It was the difference between a team of serial winners and a group without that muscle memory to fall back on. Including the defeat to City, Mikel Arteta’s side won just three of their final nine league games.
It was a perfect reminder of just how difficult winning a first title can be for a squad, especially if the weight of history and expectation is heavy. The statistics generally back it up.
In the previous two decades, three clubs have ended long waits to win the Premier League title. In 2005, Chelsea won their first league crown in 50 years. In 2012 it was City’s turn to win the title for the first time in 44 years and in 2020 Liverpool ended a 30-year drought of their own.
Two of those triumphs share similar traits and while City are the outliers, their return to the title of champions for the first time under Pep Guardiola in 2018, when the pressure to win the league was building, does fit the pattern.
In the case of Chelsea, Liverpool and City’s class of 2018, they all won the title on the bridle. A team either chasing down history or fighting a battle with expectation, often without the experience of how to do it to fall back on, didn’t have to go through a tense and torturous title race. They came out of the gates quickest of all and built up an advantage that never slipped.
Yes, City’s title win in 2012 doesn’t fit this narrative, but what it does show is just how hard it is to get over the line when a title race is as dramatic as 2023/24 is set to be. That team’s ability to win the league despite feeling the breath of such an experienced group of winners on their neck is even more impressive in retrospect. But it’s not the norm for teams winning together for the first time. In 2005 Chelsea won the title with three games to spare and were champions by 12 points. In 2018, City made good on the investment under Guardiola and the pressure to deliver, sewing up the title with five games to go and winning the league by 19 points. Then, in 2020, Liverpool were home and hosed with seven games to play and ended up 18 points clear.
So the easiest way to win a first title for a squad is to win it easily, without the pressure that ramps up
Been there, done that counts for an awful lot when the title race gets tense
Tyrone Marshall
in spring. City did that under Guardiola and since then have won three tense races, twice pipping Liverpool by a point and then reeling in Arsenal last season. That experience counts for an awful lot.
It’s not something Guardiola necessarily agrees with, however. He was asked about the experience of winning a title and the pressure involved with chasing a first ahead of the April meeting between the two sides last season, and while his mischievous smile suggested his answer might have partly been aimed at increasing the pressure on Arteta and Arsenal, he also inadvertently proved the point.
“First league title [with City] was 100 points, so it was not difficult. At Bayern Munich we won in February and at Barcelona we four games in advance as well. It is easy,” he said.
It was easy, because all three of those first titles with new clubs were secured early. There was little doubt as to who was going to win the league months before the season ended.
This time around, it is a threehorse race. Arsenal are in the same position as last season and Liverpool are back in the fight. It might be that experience allows City and Liverpool to draw clear. Been there, done that counts for an awful lot when the title race gets tense.